The Bracketology Report: Florida State

Updated: February 18, 2004, 2:02 PM ET
By Charlie Creme | Insider Bracketologist

Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
A month ago, when Florida State (InsideRPI No. 44, No. 54 SOS) played Virginia (InsideRPI No. 49, SOS No. 35) in Charlottesville, the Seminoles were wrapping up a four-game losing streak. This time around, and on its own court, FSU rolled up a second straight win, 76-57, Tuesday night. In fact, the Seminoles set a school record with their 15th straight win at home. Paced by 71.4 percent shooting, FSU outscored the Cavs by 19 points after halftime.

Florida State's modest two-game winning streak began on Valentine's Day with a 65-52 victory against Clemson. Just as they did against Virginia, the Seminoles win was revenge for an earlier road loss.

Beating Virginia and Clemson (InsideRPI No. 65, SOS No. 3) at home was absolutely necessary to stay in the NCAA Tournament picture, but it doesn't do much to improve the overall resume. At some point, FSU needs to either knock off a more highly rated opponent and/or an ACC rival on the road.

Coming up
The opportunity to make that very statement has arrived. On Saturday, the Seminoles visit Chapel Hill to play North Carolina (Insider RPI No.16, SOS No. 4), and four days later they travel to Wake Forest (InsideRPI No. 21 RPI, SOS No. 22). Wins in both would be the 'Noles most important of the year and ensure a .500 ACC season. On the other hand, a pair of losses could be devastating. A split of those games with Duke and Georgia Tech on deck to finish the season keeps hopes for a .500 ACC season alive.

The Seminoles win over the Tar Heels earlier this season (90-81 on Jan. 22) may have been a season-saver and FSU's best win. They were coming off four straight losses and had begun the ACC season 1-3. As he does in most of Florida State's significant wins, Tim Pickett came up big that night with 30 points. Three days later he combined with Nate Johnson and Adam Waleskowski for 53 points in a 75-70 triumph over Wake Forest.

"Planting Seeds"
The Seminoles are No. 44 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. This makes Florida State a No. 11 seed in the latest NCAA projections.

Florida State still has something of an uphill climb with three of its last four on the road. The Seminoles are a different team away from the Leon County Civic Center (13-1 home; 3-7 road/neutral), but still need to do something outside of Tallahassee to ensure a bid. Winning on the road against North Carolina, Wake Forest or Georgia Tech would be a huge step in the right direction. It provides a quality road win and goes a long way towards finishing .500 in the ACC.

The Seminoles have yet to beat a conference foe on the road. If that streak continues, then FSU is staring at a 6-10 league record. Such a scenario would in all probability spell NIT.

Games of the Week
Florida State fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS.
For Florida @ MISSISSIPPI (Sat.)
MIAMI-FL @ Providence (Sat.)
Against UAB @ Memphis (Sat.)
Northwestern @ MICHIGAN STATE (Sat.)

Inside the Numbers
Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include:
"Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
(vs. RPI 26-50) Maryland, Virginia
(vs. RPI 51-100) Mississippi, Clemson, Northwestern
"Bad" losses
(vs. RPI 101-150) NONE
(vs. RPI sub-150) NONE
Record vs. projected field (3-6)
Win: Maryland, Wake Forest, North Carolina
Loss: @Pittsburgh, N.C. State, Florida,Duke, @Maryland, @N.C. State
Record vs. at-large pool (0-0)
Loss: NONE
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Florida State
  • Four wins vs. RPI Top 50
  • InsideRPI No. 40
  • Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Florida State
  • 3-7 road+/neutral record
  • NonConf SOS No. 181
  • Season breakdown (17-8, 6-6)
    All RPI data through Monday, Feb. 17

    Date      Opponent                Result       Opp. RPI      Opp. SOS
    11/21     Maine                   69-49          190           318
    11/24     Georgetown, KY          81-67          Non-DI        Non-DI
    11/26     Nicholls State          99-54          326           302
    11/28     South Carolina State    81-46          248           313

    12/1 Northwestern 71-53 100 64 12/3 Mississippi 66-60 59 32 12/6 Fairleigh Dickinson 83-46 179 250 12/14 @Miami, FL 67-58 164 209 12/18 N-Wagner 83-62 236 176 12/20 N-Chicago State 47-42 225 142 12/22 @Pittsburgh 56-63 (L) 13 88 12/28 Maryland 79-75 30 10 12/30 @Stetson 87-72 218 212

    1/3 @Florida 73-87 (L) 12 2 1/11 North Carolina St 53-58 (L) 6 6 1/13 @Clemson 48-53 (L) 65 3 1/18 @Virginia 67-76 (L, ot) 49 35 1/22 North Carolina 90-81 (ot) 16 4 1/25 Wake Forest 75-70 21 22 1/29 Duke 49-56 (L) 2 8

    2/1 Savannah State 88-73 304 152 2/3 Georgia Tech 81-65 20 30 2/8 @Maryland 62-73 (L) 30 10 2/10 @North Carolina St 59-75 (L) 6 6 2/14 Clemson 65-52 65 3 2/17 Virginia 76-57 49 35 2/21 @North Carolina 16 4 2/25 @Wake Forest 21 22 2/29 Duke 2 8

    3/6 @Georgia Tech 20 30 3/11 ACC TOURNAMENT

    Joe Lunardi's forecast (Feb. 18)
    Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA bid: 45 percent
    Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 40 percent
    Chance of NIT bid: 50 percent
    Chance of missing post-season: 5 percent

    Charlie Creme projects the women's NCAA tournament bracket for