2019 NCAA tournament BPI advice: Don't pick Duke to win it all

Whatever you do, don't pick Duke to win the national championship.

I mean, do what you want.

But if you're interested in BPI's advice for your bracket -- and you're at least a little interested, since you already clicked -- then there's nothing more important than that. Anyone but Duke to win it all. I say that knowing full well that BPI considers Duke the seventh-best team this decade and the third-most likely team to win this year's tournament (you can check out our full projections here).

But the Blue Devils are also completely overvalued. As of this writing, the Tournament Challenge Who Picked Whom page shows that 42 percent of filled out brackets have Duke winning the whole thing -- well beyond the 15 percent chance that BPI gives the Blue Devils.

And that's the key element of bracket construction that is often overlooked. Even if you knew every team's true odds, which teams everyone else in your pool picked is also critical information. An upset isn't worth much if everyone else is also on it.