Bracket Math: Updated S-Curve

This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Tuesday, March 12. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

Notes on the new math:

• We're at the point, Championship Wednesday, where individual games in major conference tournaments take on added impact. For instance, the Big East tourney opener gives us fading Cincinnati against still-hopeful Providence. So every day, we'll highlight the most impactful games and the likely bracket scenarios of all possible outcomes.

• PAC-12: Arizona State versus Stanford. The Sun Devils are done with a loss, if not already. The Cardinal need a long conference tournament run, if not the title.

• PAC-12: Oregon State versus Colorado. The Buffaloes can probably withstand a second straight loss to the Beavers, but it brings the First Four into play.

• BIG EAST: St. John's versus Villanova (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). The Wildcats have too many great wins to fall out of the field if they lose what is essentially a road game to the Johnnies. A win and they can take the first half of next week off.

• PATRIOT: Lafayette at Bucknell. The Bison are not getting an at-large bid, so they better not drop this championship game on their home floor.

• MOUNTAIN WEST: Boise State versus San Diego State. Boise could go either way at this point. A win takes them off the bubble and solidly into the NCAA field. A loss would begin an agonizing four-day wait.

The Bracket

This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-Curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.