Bracket Math: Tennessee in field

Jarnell Stokes and the Tennessee Volunteers have won eight of their past nine games. Donald Page/Tennessee Athletics/Collegiate Images/Getty Images

This edition of "Bracket Math" includes games through Wednesday, March 13. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-Curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

Notes on the "new" math:

The biggest day of Championship Week is upon us, and we can characterize the most impactful games as follows …

• MUST WIN TO STAY IN THE HUNT FOR A NO. 1 SEED: Michigan (versus Penn State, Big Ten first round), Kansas (versus Texas Tech, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Big 12 quarterfinal), Louisville (versus Villanova, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, Big East quarterfinal).

• NOTHING CHANGES: Minnesota versus Illinois (Big Ten first round), Syracuse versus Pittsburgh (2 p.m. ET, ESPN, Big East quarterfinal), Colorado versus Arizona (Pac-12 quarterfinal), Notre Dame versus Marquette (9 p.m. ET, ESPN, Big East quarterfinal).

• ON THE BUBBLE WITH A LOSS: Iowa State (versus Oklahoma, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Big 12 quarterfinal), California (versus Utah, Pac-12 quarterfinal).

• MUST WIN TO STAY ON THE BUBBLE: Southern Miss (versus UAB, Conference USA quarterfinal), Arizona State (versus UCLA, Pac-12 quarterfinal), Tennessee (versus Mississippi State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3, SEC second round), Iowa (versus Northwestern, 9 p.m., ESPN2, Big Ten first round), Baylor (versus Oklahoma State, 9:30 p.m., ESPN2, Big 12 quarterfinal).

The Bracket

This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-Curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.