BP Daily: Mariners have a title shot

If you're one of those statheads inclined to pooh-pooh early-season action, avoid hasty conclusions and prattle on about small sample sizes -- and count me among them -- there is one thing we might not have believed three weeks ago. Out in the AL West, the Mariners should be taken seriously as a team with win-now potential.

No, really. Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, you'll see that our daily million-season exercise in forecasting based on today's standings suggests the M's have a 35 percent chance of reaching October action, 33 percent by virtue of winning the West outright. PECOTA projection-enhanced forecasts see the Mariners do better still, winning their division almost 37 percent of the time.