Predicting the Home Run Derby is not an exact science. That's because hitting a home run in a game is different from hitting one in batting practice, which is basically what the Derby is. As a result, we've seen guys like Bobby Abreu and Miguel Tejada, who aren't traditional mashers, win the Derby. Vlad Guerrero, another guy who's known for being more than just a home run hitter, has the longest Derby home run in my database, a 500-footer in San Francisco in 2007.
If we take a deeper look at this year's participants using the data I compile at HitTracker, we can get a pretty good sense of who will win this year's contest Monday night. Here's some information about each player: