If you're one of the 30,000 UFC fans expected to attend the UFC expo this weekend, it's a rare opportunity to take a stake in the "game outside the game" in a betting-friendly place like Las Vegas. Betting on fighting takes the visceral experience of watching human combatants and multiplies it by giving you a vested interest in the outcome. It's prizefighting, and now you've got your own prize on the line.
With so many big names stacking the UFC cards this weekend, and so many dedicated fans in Las Vegas to see them, don't be surprised to see more volatility than usual in the betting lines. Urijah Faber and Ronda Rousey are currently vying to become the biggest odds favorites in UFC history, depending on how the lines settle on Saturday. And lurking underneath the volatility and the championship-caliber media blitz are six fighters we can look at in more detail to see where the value lies. There's also an international theme in parallel with the current World Cup festivities, with the UFC calling it "International Fight Week." In each of the top three matchups an American will be facing a foreign opponent, but only two favorites will have the home-cage advantage.
In prior analyses we've considered the Total Effectiveness of fighters, and even very specific performance metrics like Knockdown Power. However, in this weekend's matchups grappling is likely to be a factor that determines the outcomes, and for that reason we begin our breakdown with the submission success rates of the fighters in question.