As the Feb. 18 trade deadline nears, it appears the epicenter of Rumorville has shifted. In contrast to a few weeks ago, when everybody viewed Washington as the first trade domino, now it appears that the resolution of Amare Stoudemire's status in Phoenix is the more likely tipping point for trade season. Don't get me wrong -- the Wizards remain very active in trade discussions, and plenty of teams covet Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. But Stoudemire is the highest-profile player to hit the trade market thus far. Multiple league sources have informed me that they expect him to be traded before the deadline as owner Robert Sarver looks to further cut money on a team that, at best, seems a likely first-round playoff casualty. Here's how the money works on Phoenix's end: Stoudemire can opt out of his contract this summer and become an unrestricted free agent. He has talked openly about using that option to pursue a maximum contract in a market in which there are few high-profile big men available. Conversely, Stoudemire can decline the option and collect $17.6 million next season. From what I'm hearing, that's the alternative that has the Suns freaked out. Because Phoenix wants to rebuild before Steve Nash's magical powers expire, Stoudemire's status as a one-year rental for 2010-11 would push that process back another 12 months. The fact that Stoudemire isn't worth $17 million in his present form complicates any plans for teams that want to trade for him. If he opts in, the Suns not only would brush up against the luxury-tax line but also would have great difficulty adding younger players and, most likely, would lose center Channing Frye. (On a completely unrelated side note, calling Frye "the first center in the 3-point contest" would make a bit more sense if his teammate weren't the starting center in the All-Star Game.) All of the above would make trading Stoudemire rather cut-and-dried, except for one little problem: coming up with a deal that works. Virtually every potential suitor has at least one major issue that would complicate any acquisition involving Stoudemire. Let's run through the candidates and consider the possibilities: New Jersey: In terms of trade pieces, this one is the most straightforward option. The Nets can offer the Suns a talented young player (Courtney Lee) and a heap of cap relief by throwing expiring contracts into the deal and agreeing to take Leandro Barbosa (owed $6.6 million next season) along with Stoudemire. New Jersey can throw several assortments of expiring deals into such a trade, but the ones that make the most sense are for Bobby Simmons and Tony Battie. Such an arrangement would put the Suns about $10 million under the cap and save them approximately $3.5 million in luxury-tax payments this season. Because Phoenix is such an alluring destination for free agents, the deal would position the Suns to snap out of the doldrums quickly. They also might be able to squeeze Dallas' first-round pick out of the Nets (owed from the Jason Kidd trade) if they negotiate hard enough. Here's the problem, though: Stoudemire would have to agree to join one of the league's most depressing situations. The Nets are hopeless right now and won't move to Brooklyn for at least two more years. Although new owner Mikhail Prokhorov can take over in March if approved by the league, even that remains uncertain: I've been told that the acquisition isn't a 100 percent done deal yet. One way to make this deal happen would be an "extend-and-trade," in which Stoudemire agreed in advance to an extension with Phoenix at some reasonable number (i.e., less than he's making now). This isn't unprecedented -- Boston and Minnesota did it in the Kevin Garnett trade -- but it would require a lot of haggling. It also would require Stoudemire to be willing to play in The Swamp (or, next season perhaps, in Newark), and right now that seems a long shot. Miami: I've heard this is Stoudemire's preferred landing spot because he hails from Florida and would look forward to playing with Dwyane Wade. Multiple problems complicate any potential deal, however. First, there's the money. Both teams are over the luxury tax and are trying to get under the line; you can't really do a deal when both teams are trying to cut money. Setting that aside, other complications arise. From the Heat's perspective, they basically would be making Stoudemire their free-agent pickup for 2010. But can't the Heat do better this summer in a stacked free-agent class that includes the likes of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, David Lee, Carlos Boozer and Rudy Gay? Additionally, the most plausible deal is one that would swap Stoudemire and Barbosa for Jermaine O'Neal -- but would that make Miami any better? The Heat already have one poor frontcourt defender in Michael Beasley; pairing him with Stoudemire would eviscerate their interior defense. All told, this one has enough holes in it that I doubt it will come to fruition. San Antonio: I know the Spurs are getting desperate, but desperate enough to try this? I don't think so. If Stoudemire were to opt in for next season, they would be hosed: The normally financially savvy, small-market Spurs would go over the luxury-tax bar for a team that has only seven players under contract and looks decidedly long in the tooth. Moreover, acquiring Stoudemire would cost the Spurs Manu Ginobili, their only reliable shot creator on the wings, and the Spurs have precious little in the form of young players to include as a sweetener. This one never had legs, and there are good reasons why. Cleveland: The biggest problem with any Cleveland scenario is that it would leave the Cavs a body or two short in the frontcourt for a month. The Cavs would send Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson to Phoenix for "STAT," most likely with the understanding that the Suns would immediately waive Ilgauskas so he could return to the Cavs after the mandatory 30-day waiting period. The one nice thing about this deal is that it's one of the few that wouldn't necessarily require negotiating an extension beforehand. Because of their demonstrated willingness to spend, the Cavs might be more comfortable than most with the idea of Stoudemire playing as a rental and either (A) trying to re-sign or sign-and-trade him this summer or (B) having him play out next season for $17 million before doing the same. It's a bit of a risk for a Cleveland team that isn't exactly desperate, though. Stoudemire struggled when paired with Shaquille O'Neal a season ago, and his opportunities would further shrivel in a LeBron-dominated offense in Cleveland. Meanwhile, a Stoudemire-Shaq frontcourt would be subject to the same nightly shreddings on defense the Suns suffered a season ago in Phoenix. Although Stoudemire's offensive ability makes this swap a slam dunk on paper, the on-court chemistry seems less enticing. Golden State: The Warriors were hot on Stoudemire's trail on draft day, but they apparently have cooled toward him since then. Not only did Stoudemire frown on moving to Oakland but it seems that Golden State has shifted direction in an attempt to save money while owner Chris Cohan considers selling the team to Oracle founder Larry Ellison. If the Warriors ever get serious about it, however, they could put together a better offer than almost any other team. Golden State can combine expiring contracts (Raja Bell, Speedy Claxton) with young talent (take your pick: Stephen Curry, Kelenna Azubuike, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Morrow, Anthony Randolph) to create an alluring package, and Stoudemire almost certainly would thrive in the Warriors' up-tempo, defense-optional style. None of that, however, happens without an offer, and right now the Warriors don't appear to be in the market. Detroit: Nobody is quite sure whether the Pistons are coming or going these days, but one option to think about is a trade of Charlie Villanueva for Stoudemire. That would get the Suns a younger player at a more reasonable salary and pave the way for the rebuilding process, and the Pistons could line the deal with expiring contracts (Chris Wilcox and Kwame Brown) to make the salary-cap math work. Such a deal would give Phoenix $10 million of additional wiggle room around the luxury tax and, of course, a replacement for Stoudemire. From Detroit's perspective, it would be taking a risk by committing to Stoudemire and adding another long-term contract to a fairly large stable of them. Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon and Jason Maxiell all have at least two years left after this one at big numbers, and Rodney Stuckey is likely to join them because the Pistons can extend him this summer. Although there isn't any threat that the Pistons could become a tax team, it would be a heavy salary structure for a club that's losing big and is in the process of changing owners. For that reason, the odds tilt heavily against such a deal taking place, but from the Phoenix perspective, it would be one of the more intriguing options. Chicago: We haven't heard much about Chicago as having interest in Stoudemire, and the Bulls have become infamous for their inability to pull the trigger on major moves. Nonetheless, this might be the most appealing destination for both Stoudemire and the Suns. The Bulls can put together a strong deal if they have the interest, but, as with Miami above, the biggest hurdle is that they'd have to be committed to making Stoudemire their free-agent pickup. But because Chicago isn't slated to have max cap space anyway -- at the moment, at least -- the opportunity cost isn't nearly as great. Additionally, Chicago can provide Phoenix with young players and cap relief. A deal of Jerome James, Tyrus Thomas, Taj Gibson and Jannero Pargo for Stoudemire and Jason Collins would save the Suns more than $3 million in luxury tax and put them well south of next season's tax line while allowing them to rebuild with two defensive-minded frontcourt players in Gibson and Thomas. Throw Brad Miller into the deal instead of James, and the Suns also could drop Barbosa on Chicago and further cut costs. More importantly, Chicago is a good fit for Stoudemire. Paired with a strong defensive center in Joakim Noah, his own defensive shortcomings would be less exposed and he wouldn't find the low block occupied. Along with Derrick Rose and Luol Deng, Stoudemire would make the Bulls an athletic, up-tempo outfit with three relatively young pillars to build around.





