GO TO: PROJECTED STARTERS RESERVES

Here are my player scouting reports and 2011-12 projections for the Dallas Mavericks.
(Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '10-11.)

• Hollinger Player Profiles also available on ESPN.com's NBA player cards »

PROJECTED STARTERS

JASON KIDD, PG

Projection: 7.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 9.1 ast per 40 min; 12.14 PER | Player card

• Big, savvy point guard who rebounds very well. Great open-court passer.
• Struggles to check quick guards, but excels at defending wings and team defense.
• Will make careless turnovers. Can hit spot-up 3s but can't shoot on move.

Kidd's offensive numbers undeniably regressed last season -- he slumped to 34 percent on 3s and averaged only 9.2 points per 40 minutes -- but his defense was a major reason the Mavs were able to win the championship. The key was Dallas' realization that Kidd, while a point guard on offense, no longer had the wheels to defend the position. Instead, his size and savvy made him a very good defender against wing players. He spent the entire Finals doing battle with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and held his own.

Kidd, of course, remains a great passer, ranking fifth in pure point rating last season, although his tendency to commit utterly preventable turnovers appears to be only worsening. In the half court, he is content to spot up on the perimeter and virtually never seeks out offense otherwise; two-thirds of his shots were 3s (the highest rate among point guards) and he took only 50 shots at the rim the entire season (only three players played at least 2,000 minutes and took fewer).

What's more amazing, however, is his energy level at age 38. Kidd was second among point guards in defensive rebound rate, fifth in steals and 10th in blocks, all while having one of the lowest foul rates in basketball. As long as his secondary skills remain so strong, he can be an effective player despite rarely scoring.

VINCE CARTER, SG

Projection: 17.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 12.75 PER | Player card

• Formerly athletic, high-flying guard who has lost considerable burst and lift.
• Good outside shooter off catch. Tends to shy from contact near basket.
• Underrated passer. Good handle. Solid defender but doesn't always play hard.

Carter went west geographically, but his basketball went south after an early-season trade from Orlando. He shot 42.2 percent in Phoenix, stopped drawing fouls and saw his scoring numbers go down despite playing with the league's best passer. Defensively, his foul rate shot up -- only five shooting guards fouled more frequently -- although his other stats were solid.

This was easily his worst season, but he still averaged nearly a point every two minutes, ranked 13th among shooting guards on the boards and had one of the lowest turnover ratios in basketball.

At 34, he's gone from "half-man, half-amazing," to a player who can no longer be plugged into a starting lineup for 30 minutes a night. But he still makes open jumpers, handles the ball well and has the size to wrangle with most opposing wings. The Suns will likely pay him to go away, but even in his diminished state he's too good not to find a niche someplace.

SHAWN MARION, SF

Projection: 14.9 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 14.23 PER | Player card

• Quick-leaping combo forward who is very effective on short-range shots.
• Bizarre, low shot release. Has stopped taking 3s. Excellent quickness for size.
• Can post up smaller wings. Good rebounder. Runs floor and handles ball well.

One twist that's always fun to watch is when coaches take plays from a new player's previous team that had worked well for him. For example, last season Dallas began running a weird play Phoenix had used with great success with Marion -- a 3/5 pick-and-roll at the top of the free throw line between Marion and the center. In Phoenix, it was Amare Stoudemire; in Dallas, it was Tyson Chandler. Each was able to catch opponents off guard with that play a couple of times a game, generating either an easy short-range look for Marion or a dunk for the center.

Marion has changed up his game quite a bit in Dallas, and it helped him to a major bounce-back season that received little fanfare but was a crucial part in the Mavs' surprise title. He no longer shoots 3s and posts up considerably more often, which boosted his shooting percentage to last season's 52 percent. He also picked up his rebounding after it fell off considerably in 2009-10, ranking second among all small forwards in rebound rate.

Marion remains a capable defender, too, who can move up to the 4 spot and wreak havoc in small lineups. While there's a fair amount of risk that his performance will regress -- he is 33 and just had his best season of the past three years -- the adjustments he's made in his game have helped him hold off Father Time a bit longer.

DIRK NOWITZKI, PF

Projection: 24.6 pts, 7.8 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 21.09 PER | Player card

• Nimble 7-footer with devastating midrange jumper and unblockable fadeaway.
• Moves well on defense but lacks strength. Not a leaper.
• Great going left and quickly pulling up for shot. Rarely turns ball over.

Nowitzki's 2010-11 postseason actually wasn't out of line with what he's done in several other playoff seasons; it just had a much happier ending. He's been doing this for years -- his career playoff PER is higher than his regular-season mark, a boast very few players can make. However, because he finally won a title after countless years of falling short, everybody was looking for "the difference" … but Nowitzki didn't really do anything different.

Nowitzki remains among the game's most devastating offensive weapons thanks to the relatively simple concept that he generates a lot of points from relatively few possessions. It's not just that he averaged 26.9 points per 40 minutes, a fearsome stat in itself, but that he did it with such staggering efficiency. Nowitzki again had among the lowest turnover rates at his position, and his true shooting percentage of 61.7 is mind-boggling for a midrange shooter. He basically turns the game's normal percentages on their head.

I can't stress this enough: You're not supposed to shoot this many long 2s and still have good percentages. For every other player in every other league in the entire world, the long 2-pointer is the worst shot in basketball. But it's not if you're Dirk Nowitzki. He was the second best in the league at shooting from 10-23 feet last season (see chart), but the even more amazing part is in the "attempts" column -- he took nearly 10 a game. Well more than half his shots were long 2s.

Top midrange shooters (10-23 feet), 2010-11

Unlike the rest of the planet, Nowitzki is so uncannily accurate that he can dominate games this way. Defenders routinely foul him trying to pressure his shot or by leaving their feet due to the threat of the shot. Opponents send double-teams to prevent it, creating openings for others. And as a result, he was arguably the most valuable offensive player in basketball last season. Certainly he is for Dallas' system -- the Mavs scored 10.27 points fewer per 100 possessions when he left the court last season, a staggering figure that's been pretty steady over the past half-decade.

BRENDAN HAYWOOD, C

Projection: 9.1 pts, 11.2 reb, 0.9 ast per 40 min; 12.46 PER | Player card

• Big center who can finish dunks and short hooks. Limited low-post game.
• Horrendous foul shooter. Has few ball skills. Solid rebounder.
• Size, shot-blocking make him plus defender but motivation comes and goes.

Haywood led the league in the percentage of his shots that were basket-and-1s, at 11.2 percent (see chart). This might be more encouraging if he hadn't also led the league in wasted free-agent dollars. Dallas gave him a five-year, $43 million deal in the offseason, and then won the Finals with minimum-wagers Ian Mahinmi and Brian Cardinal taking his place.

Highest percentage of shots as basket-and-1s, 2010-11

I know the Mavs were willing to burn money to get a ring, but man, that's one hell of a bonfire. The championship halo shouldn't overshadow how badly it will sandbag their cap planning (although the amnesty clause may save them) -- in 2014-15, he'll be 34 and make $10 million. (The total contract value could be more if he achieves some unlikely incentives and Dallas picks up the nonguaranteed final year at $10.5 million in 2015-16, but one can comfortably rule out both possibilities at this point.)

Even Haywood's biggest positive was a negative. He was fifth among centers in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, but that was intentional -- he shot an embarrassing 36.2 percent from the line. This earned him the distinction of the lowest secondary percentage in basketball, as his trips to the line actually dragged his true shooting percentage down (see DeAndre Jordan comment), one of only six players to land in the negatives.

Defensively, he was still fairly solid. Haywood is 7 feet with a solid build, blocks shots and has decent mobility for a player of his size. That makes him a useful backup center, especially against bigger opponents such as the Lakers and Magic. That's why Dallas wanted him, and it was a valid reason. But the Mavs grossly overpaid for him.

RESERVES

LAMAR ODOM, PF

Projection: 15.8 pts, 10.5 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 17.68 PER | Player card

• Mobile combo forward with outstanding ballhandling skill for size.
• Average outside shooter who lacks great burst. Vastly improved rebounder.
• Strong defensive player. Can guard physical 4s or step out to perimeter.

Odom had a career season at age 31. That's the good news. The bad news is he is one of seven players whose stats can be expected to sharply regress this season, based on a phenomenon called the Fluke Rule. While these seasons are not all flukes per se, the rule of thumb still holds: Any player past the age of 28 whose player efficiency rating (A) jumps by more than three points in a season and (B) is above 14 will see his PER regress the next season, on average, by roughly the same amount. The odds are better than 90 percent that his PER will go down, and in many cases the decline is steep.

This is particularly true for players like Odom that are on the wrong side of 30 and had never played this well previously. Odom's PER last season was a career high because he shot the lights out both in the basket area (70.2 percent) and on 3-pointers (38.2 percent). However, based on his career norms he seems unlikely to sustain such lofty percentages.

As a reminder, here's how last year's Fluke Rule class fared (see chart). While it rarely works out this neatly across the entire group, the mean Fluke Rule player will lose three points on his PER the following season. (Nice Fluke Rule players are similarly affected).

Fluke Rule, Class of 2009-10

This year, the other seven players joining Odom in Flukeville are Brad Miller, Tony Allen, Chris Andersen, Earl Boykins, Tyson Chandler, Tony Parker and Chris Wilcox. Miller may not play this year after having microfracture over the summer, but of the other seven we can expect six to decline. Parker and Chandler, who were 28 years old on Dec. 31 of last season, are slightly less susceptible than their older cohorts, but all will be hard-pressed to maintain last season's production.

Fluke Rule, Class of 2010-11

While the eight players in this season's crop run the gamut from "no freaking way he does that again" (Wilcox) to "potential glaring exception" (Parker), Odom represents a fairly typical Fluke Rule player and it's clear how his numbers could fall back to earth. Last season he blew away his career highs in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and TS%. If those revert back to his usual levels -- which is nearly always what happens -- his PER will come along for the ride. The result would still leave Odom as one of the most effective sixth men in the game because of his defense, rebounding, ballhandling and not insignificant scoring. But it's unrealistic to expect him to shoot 70 percent at the rim and drill 38 percent of his 3s.

JASON TERRY, SG

Projection: 19.0 pts, 2.3 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min; 15.14 PER | Player card

• Fast combo guard with deadly midrange jump shot, especially going right.
• Not a true point guard but capable of creating off dribble. Abysmal rebounder.
• Lacks size, strength on defense but has fast hands. Better in cross-matches.

Everyone knows the Mavs have one great midrange shooter, but in the playoffs, Terry reminded everyone they have two. He shot 46.6 percent on 2-pointers from beyond 10 feet last season, the 11th-best mark in the league, and threw in enough 3-pointers to have a decent true shooting percentage despite all those jumpers.

Terry also proved useful starting trouble in pick-and-rolls; while he doesn't have great court vision, he can play the point in a pinch and ranked seventh among shooting guards in pure point rating. However, he did see a spike in turnovers -- his highest mark in six years -- and that was the main reason his PER fell.

Terry can be a bit high-strung, for both good and bad. Even last season, he had several bizarre incidents (in a two-week stretch at the end of the regular season, he took a cheap shot at Steve Blake, got in a fight on his own bench and celebrated a missed free throw at the buzzer because he didn't know the score), but his unshakable confidence also helped him step up with a series of killer shots in the Finals.

Defensively, Terry's value is linked with that of Jason Kidd. As long as they share the court, they can switch men on defense and Terry can guard the opposing point guard. But against most 2s, Terry is dead meat, so these matchups need to be monitored very carefully. Terry's rebound rates are annually among the worst in basketball, and last season was no exception -- for the second year in a row, he had the league's second-worst mark (see Jamal Crawford comment).

DELONTE WEST, SG

No projection | Player card

• Quick, herky-jerky lefty combo guard. Good mid-range shooter. Prefers wing.
• Undersized, but good defensive player. Moves feet well, good intensity.
• Quick leaper. Prone to turnovers. Bipolar illness an off-court issue.

West played more point guard and less wing in Boston than in his previous stops, the most he's played at the point since the last time he was a Celtic. In this incarnation he provided a passable backup but little more; he's a better defender at the 2 than the 1, even though he's undersized there, and his instincts are more as a scorer than a distributor.

West ended up with solid distribution numbers, but it came at the cost of his own offense. He was so muted that he attempted only 15 free throws in 453 minutes, leading to his averaging just 11.9 points per 40 minutes. One wonders what the Celtics might get from him in a full season, as he played only 24 games last season thanks to a wrist injury, and it's one of several ways Boston may get more help from its bench than it did a year ago.

DeSHAWN STEVENSON, SG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)

Projection: 11.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 8.01 PER | Player card

• Strong wing defender with toughness. Spot-up 3-point shooter. Slow release.
• Handles ball well but has no burst or leaping ability. Very poor finisher.
• History of back problems. Good shot selection. Questionable tattoo selection.

At the 2010 trade deadline, the Mavericks were stoked that they acquired two players from Washington they thought would put them over the top -- Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. The only drawback was that, as part of the trade, they had to eat the final year and a half on Stevenson's contract.

Funny how things work out. Butler and Haywood were injured in the Finals, while Stevenson shot 13-of-23 on 3s for the series, committed one turnover in 93 minutes and ably defended LeBron James. To say this was unexpected is an understatement: Stevenson had shot 28.2 percent and 31.2 percent the previous two seasons. No, no, not on 3s -- I mean overall.

However, last season he rediscovered his jump shot. Stevenson took three-quarters of his shots behind the arc and made a solid 37.8 percent, raising his offensive value enough that the Mavs could leave him on the court for his defense. He'd been plagued by back trouble the previous few years, and last season's results were pretty consistent with what he had done earlier in his Washington career. So there's at least some hope that this wasn't a fluke (his season, that is, not his Finals) and he can remain a useful role player going forward.

BRANDAN WRIGHT, PF

No projection | Player card

• Long lefty with accurate short-range shot. Good finisher but no post game.
• Big and talented, but hugely injury-prone. Motivation has been questioned.
• Lacks strength, poor rebounder. Blocks shots but overall defense very poor.

Wright became another victim in the Warriors' lengthy history of eating their young; despite decent numbers his first two seasons, he played only 21 games for Golden State after missing the previous season with shoulder problems. A trade to the Nets liberated Wright from that situation, and in his limited time in New Jersey he did the same things he's done at each stop. He's a 53.1 percent career shooter, so one has to think there's a place for him somewhere, and his rates of rebounds and blocks are respectable.

But lots of factors conspire to work against him: He hasn't been healthy enough to hang on to a rotation spot for long; he needs to bulk up and defend the post better; and his overall passion for the game remains a question mark. Leaving the poisonous atmosphere in Golden State may help, but Wright won't make much of an impression until he first can stay on the court.

BRIAN CARDINAL, PF

Projection: 8.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 8.94 PER | Player card

• Floor-spacing big man who is strictly catch-and-shoot 3-point threat.
• Slow, undersized defender, but smart and physical. Gives fouls freely.
• Nonfactor on boards. Can't create own shot or finish in paint.

Cardinal set a record that will never be broken -- he was assisted on every single basket he made last season. Yes, that's easier when you make only 43 of them, but still. Amazingly, 42 of those makes were 3-pointers, nearly all coming from spot-ups in the corner. Essentially, Dallas found the one thing Cardinal could do and didn't ask him to do anything more; he shot 48.3 percent on those triples, nearly leading the league in true shooting percentage in the process, and contributed two big ones in the Finals.

Highest percentage of baskets assisted, 2010-11

Cardinal was another spot-up shooter the Mavs had to manage carefully at the defensive end. While he's a clever team defender who takes charges and is more than happy to maim an opponent to prevent a layup, Cardinal is hopeless in individual defense. That, plus his paucity of rebounds, his complete and utter inability to create his own shot, and his limited likelihood of shooting in the 40s on 3s again are some of the reasons he's unlikely to relive his glory of this past postseason.

RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS, G

No projection | Player card

• Speedy guard who can shoot and score. Penetrates but doesn't see court well.
• Gets out of control on drives. Must improve handle. Good rebounder for size.
• Good defensive quickness but needs to improve strength and fundamentals.

The inadvertent catalyst for Dallas' championship run, Beaubois started 26 of the Mavs' last 27 games until injuring his ankle on the final day of the season. He never got back on the active roster, as Dallas' guard rotation suddenly clicked without him.

This isn't all Beaubois' fault, of course -- his presence gave the Mavs one small guard too many. But he also had a rough second season. After missing most of the year with a foot injury, he struggled to regain the scoring prowess he showed as a rookie. Beaubois slumped to 42.2 percent from the floor and 30.1 percent on 3s, while his erratic ballhandling made little progress and doomed him to the "2 in a 1's body" archetype.

Still, even last season Beaubois could fill it up, averaging 19 points per 40 minutes, and one presumes the poor shooting percentages had much do with rust from his long layoff. If so, his scoring boost could prove incredibly helpful to another team if he's ever traded. But it's difficult to find playing time for a poor man's Jason Terry when you already have the real one.

IAN MAHINMI, C

No projection | Player card

• Athletic big man and high-percentage finisher near basket. Draws lots of fouls.
• Has limited perimeter game and very poor ball skills. Lacks strength for a true 5.
• Passable defender but uncoordinated; has sky-high foul rate. Injury-prone.

Dallas fans can pinpoint the exact moment in Game 6 of the Finals when they knew it was their night: the one-legged, Dirk Nowitzki-esque fadeaway Mahinmi made at the end of the third quarter. No, he does not normally do this. Nonetheless, he represented a good value pickup for the end of the Mavs' bench based on his solid numbers in previous NBA minutes and in the D-League.

Mahinmi certainly has his issues -- he fouled at the obscene rate of one every 4.6 minutes, he was far too turnover-prone for such a low-usage player and he has had trouble staying healthy.

However, he can get some points. Mahinmi is very active and efficient around the basket, shooting 56.1 percent from the floor and backing it up with an amazing 0.84 free throw attempts per field goal attempt; he made his freebies, too. As a result, his true shooting percentage of 64.5 was among the best at his position … and yet it brought down his career average. To find a fifth big man this productive on a minimum contract was a quiet coup for Dallas, and one reason among many it emerged victorious in June.

ANDY RAUTINS, G

No projection | Player card

• Good outside shooter with solid ballhandling skills. Can't create own shot.
• Small for a wing and a C athlete. Defensive ability a major question.

In his rookie season, Rautins learned a lot about business casual dress and properly tipping hotel staff, but precious little about playing NBA basketball. He suited up for only 24 minutes for the Knicks and, in a more puzzling development, he didn't play a minute in the D-League despite the Knicks' non-usage of him. This continues New York's long-held distrust of the D-League, and effectively wasted Rautins' rookie season.

This summer, Rautins played for his native Canada at the FIBA Americas, and even at this lower level his lack of athleticism stood out -- in 189 minutes, he had one offensive rebound and didn't block a shot. He also took three-quarters of his shots beyond the 3-point line.

Of course, this was also the first real game he'd played in more than a year. I'm not saying he's some kind of huge prospect -- in fact I was fairly shocked he was drafted at all. But New York pursued a very odd player development strategy.

DOMINIQUE JONES, SG

No projection | Player card

• Big, strong wing who rebounds very well for his size. Good passer.
• Quick and can get to basket, but outside shot needs improvement.
• Physical player but a B athlete. Unclear what offensive role he can fill.

Jones barely got on the floor for Dallas, playing only 135 minutes in his rookie season. He showed his one definitive NBA skill, rebounding, by grabbing 7.4 boards per 40 minutes, but shot 31.1 percent from the floor and didn't make a 3-pointer.

In 10 D-League games, it was a similar story. Jones got to the basket, set up teammates and drew fouls, but at a high cost in turnovers. His rebounding wasn't quite as phenomenal, and considering the level of competition, his overall performance was pretty borderline. He'd be best served by going to a bad team and playing 1,000 minutes off the bench, but on this roster he'll have to prove himself defensively and show he can make a few spot-up 3s to earn minutes in a crowded backcourt.