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Projections show split paths for Winston, Mariota

On April 30, a quarterback is almost certain to go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft for the 13th time in the last 20 years. And while there was a great deal of optimism about all of those quarterbacks at the time they were drafted, the numbers suggest that only sometimes was that optimism warranted. For all their throws that leaped off the film, red flags should have jumped off the stat sheet for previous No. 1 picks such as Tim Couch and David Carr. Those same warning signs apply to Jameis Winston.

Our new quarterback-adjusted stats and experience (QBASE) system finds that, even ignoring his off-field concerns, the odds are against Winston ever becoming an elite quarterback.