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Projected 2020 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?

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Berry suggests you pick up Marquise Brown (1:53)

Matthew Berry and Field Yates review Marquise Brown's big game vs. the Dolphins, especially since he only participated in 14 snaps in Baltimore's blowout win. (1:53)

The Miami Dolphins will own the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL draft, according to the 1-32 projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). Brian Flores' team is 0-1, and FPI gives the Dolphins a 45% chance to have the first overall pick next April.

Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full projection below (updated on Sept. 10):


1. Miami Dolphins (0-1)

Average draft position: 2.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 45%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.2%


2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

Average draft position: 6.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.1%


3. Arizona Cardinals (0-0-1)

Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 46.1%


4. New York Giants (0-1)

Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.2%


5. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.9%


6. Washington Redskins (0-1)

Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 30.8%


7. Cleveland Browns (0-1)

Average draft position: 9.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 29.4%


8. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Average draft position: 10.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.7%


9. Denver Broncos (0-1)

Average draft position: 11.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.8%


10. New York Jets (0-1)

Average draft position: 11.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.6%


11. Oakland Raiders (1-0)

Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 44.9%


12. Detroit Lions (0-0-1)

Average draft position: 13.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 37.2%


13. Carolina Panthers (0-1)

Average draft position: 14.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 12.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 34.4%


14. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

Average draft position: 14.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.5%


15. Buffalo Bills (1-0)

Average draft position: 14.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.3%


16. Oakland Raiders (from CHI; 1-0)

Average draft position: 14.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.6%


17. Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

Average draft position: 15.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.7%


18. Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Average draft position: 15.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.3%


19. Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.4%


20. Miami Dolphins (from HOU; 0-1)

Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.9%


21. San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

Average draft position: 19.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.4%


22. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)

Average draft position: 20.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.7%


23. Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Average draft position: 21.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6%


24. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)

Average draft position: 22.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.6%


25. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

Average draft position: 23.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.8%


26. Tennessee Titans (1-0)

Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4%


27. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Average draft position: 23.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.7%


28. Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

Average draft position: 25.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.5%


29. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

Average draft position: 26.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1%


30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

Average draft position: 27.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%


31. New Orleans Saints (1-0)

Average draft position: 26.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.7%


32. New England Patriots (1-0)

Average draft position: 28.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%