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Projected 2020 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?

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The two-win Miami Dolphins are no longer projected by the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) to pick No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL draft. The Cincinnati Bengals are the new favorites to get the top pick, with the Dolphins now projected to pick No. 4. Miami also is projected to have the Nos. 17 and 26 picks, according to our 1-32 draft order projections.

The Dolphins traded cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers to add another first-round pick, and they already had an extra first-rounder after trading Laremy Tunsil to the Texans.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, now own the Los Angeles Rams' first-round pick after the Jalen Ramsey trade. That pick is projected to be No. 21.

Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams and game locations. The order is based on each team's average draft position, which is determined by the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.

Check out the full projection below (updated Tuesday, after every Week 10 game):


1. Cincinnati Bengals (0-9)

Average draft position: 1.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 53.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 97.6%


2. Washington Redskins (1-8)

Average draft position: 3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 91.5%


3. New York Giants (2-8)

Average draft position: 3.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 83.9%


4. Miami Dolphins (2-7)

Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80.1%


5. New York Jets (2-7)

Average draft position: 5.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 55.4%


6. Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1)

Average draft position: 8.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.9%


7. Denver Broncos (3-6)

Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19%


8. Atlanta Falcons (2-7)

Average draft position: 9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.8%


9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)

Average draft position: 10.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.6%


10. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

Average draft position: 11.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.9%


11. Detroit Lions (3-5-1)

Average draft position: 11.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 41.4%


12. Cleveland Browns (3-6)

Average draft position: 12.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 34.7%


13. Oakland Raiders (from 4-5 CHI)

Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.3%


14. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)

Average draft position: 13.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.4%


15. Tennessee Titans (5-5)

Average draft position: 15.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.4%


16. Carolina Panthers (5-4)

Average draft position: 16.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.3%


17. Indianapolis Colts (5-4)

Average draft position: 17.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.8%


18. Oakland Raiders (5-4)

Average draft position: 17.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9%


19. Buffalo Bills (6-3)

Average draft position: 18.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.6%


20. Miami Dolphins (from 5-4 PIT)

Average draft position: 19
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.7%


21. Jacksonville Jaguars (from 5-4 LAR)

Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.7%


22. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)

Average draft position: 21.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1%


23. Dallas Cowboys (5-4)

Average draft position: 21.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.3%


24. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)

Average draft position: 22.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


25. Minnesota Vikings (7-3)

Average draft position: 25
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


26. Miami Dolphins (from 6-3 HOU)

Average draft position: 26
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


27. New Orleans Saints (7-2)

Average draft position: 26.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


28. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Average draft position: 26.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


29. Green Bay Packers (8-2)

Average draft position: 27.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


30. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)

Average draft position: 28
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


31. San Francisco 49ers (8-1)

Average draft position: 28
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%


32. New England Patriots (8-1)

Average draft position: 29.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 1%