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Projected NFL draft order for 2022: Who has the No. 1 pick?

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The Detroit Lions have the best chance to pick at No. 1 in the 2022 NFL draft, according to the updated draft order projections (1 to 32) from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The Lions are the last winless team in 2021 after the Jacksonville Jaguars broke their 20-game losing streak with a win over the Miami Dolphins in London. With the win, the Jaguars are now projected to have the No. 3 pick.

There already have been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants projected to have two top-11 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are currently projected to have three top-15 picks, thanks to deals with the Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts -- the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz's playing time. After spraining both ankles in Week 2, Wentz has played every snap since.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Oct. 19):

1. Detroit Lions (0-6)

Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 30.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 86.1%


2. Houston Texans (1-5)

Average draft position: 3.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 21.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 81.0%


3. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

Average draft position: 4.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 76.2%


4. New York Jets (1-4)

Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 71.2%


5. New York Giants (1-5)

Average draft position: 6.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 53.2%


6. Philadelphia Eagles (via 1-5 MIA)

Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 35.0%


7. Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Average draft position: 8.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.6%


8. Washington Football Team (2-4)

Average draft position: 9.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.8%


9. New England Patriots (2-4)

Average draft position: 11.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.2%


10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)

Average draft position: 12.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.2%


11. New York Giants (via 3-3 CHI)

Average draft position: 12.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.3%


12. Carolina Panthers (3-3)

Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.3


13. New York Jets (via 2-4 SEA)

Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.1%


14. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

Average draft position: 15.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.2%


15. Indianapolis Colts (2-4)

Average draft position: 15.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.0%

* Conditional pick: Will become Eagles' pick if Colts QB Carson Wentz plays 75% of snaps this season. He has played 98.8% of snaps through Week 6.


16. Denver Broncos (3-3)

Average draft position: 16.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.3%


17. Miami Dolphins (via 2-3 SF)

Average draft position: 17.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.3%


18. Minnesota Vikings (3-3)

Average draft position: 18.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.0%


19. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)

Average draft position: 18.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.1%


20. Cleveland Browns (3-3)

Average draft position: 18.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.3%


21. Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)

Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.6%


22. New Orleans Saints (3-2)

Average draft position: 20.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.6%


23. Tennessee Titans (4-2)

Average draft position: 22.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.6%


24. Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)

Average draft position: 22.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.7%


25. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

Average draft position: 23.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.8%


26. Green Bay Packers (5-1)

Average draft position: 24.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.8%


27. Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

Average draft position: 26.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


28. Detroit Lions (via 5-1 LAR)

Average draft position: 26.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


29. Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

Average draft position: 26.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

Average draft position: 27.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


31. Arizona Cardinals (6-0)

Average draft position: 28.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


32. Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Average draft position: 29.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%