Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on defense-adjusted value over average, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.
Sunday 1 p.m. games
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (FOX)
Vernon Davis fantasy red alert! Wait more than red. Infrared alert! Carolina has the worst DVOA in the league against tight ends, allowing nearly 10 yards per reception.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball San Francisco's pass defense ranks fourth in DVOA on first down and sixth on third down, but 31st in the NFL on second down. Carolina isn't likely to take much advantage, however; the Panthers have the absolute worst passing game in the league on second down.
St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX)
Watch out if Tampa Bay gets out to an early lead, because the Bucs this year have the fourth-best defense in the league when leading by more than a touchdown, while St. Louis ranks 29th on offense when losing by more than a touchdown.