There are only three undefeated teams left in the NFL. Denver, Minnesota and Philadelphia have all looked great so far this season. However, based on Football Outsiders' methodology, none of those three teams is the current favorite to win Super Bowl LI.
This early in the season, our playoff odds still combine performance this season with our preseason forecast that was based on personnel changes and general year-to-year trends. And because they are playing very well, have a 3-1 record, and were our top forecasted team coming into 2016, we currently have the Seattle Seahawks as a significant favorite to win Super Bowl LI. The Seahawks make it back to the Super Bowl in 33.2 percent of our simulations this week and win it all 20.7 percent of the time. The Pittsburgh Steelers are second at 11.7 percent after their big win over Kansas City. Undefeated Minnesota and Denver are third and fourth.
But while they might not be our Super Bowl favorites, Minnesota and Denver have very strong odds to make it to the postseason because of their 4-0 records. Each week from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the playoff odds for all 32 teams in the NFL.
For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
1. Denver Broncos (4-0)
Odds of making playoffs: 80.4 percent
The Broncos had by far their best defensive game of the season against Tampa Bay in Week 4, climbing to fifth in defensive DVOA. They're also still in the top 10 on offense, one of the major surprises of the early season. Right now the biggest hurdle between the Broncos and another AFC West title is that the AFC West is the best division in the game. All three of Denver's division rivals also have an above-average DVOA through four weeks.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 79.8 percent
Based on average DVOA rating so far, the Steelers have played the hardest schedule in the NFL, but they play the easiest schedule over their final 12 games. While Pittsburgh has yet to play a team with a below-average DVOA through four games, six of its next eight opponents are currently below average (although New England won't be by the time they play the Steelers).