How Green Bay wins Super Bowl XLV

Aaron Rodgers needs to carry the Green Bay Packers' offense if they want to beat the Steelers. Jerry Lai/US Presswire

It's hard to think of a better and closer Super Bowl matchup than this one. The Pittsburgh Steelers finished second overall in the Football Outsiders ratings this season, while the Green Bay Packers were third. Pittsburgh also led the league in defense, with Green Bay second. And Green Bay led the league in pass defense, with Pittsburgh second. (You can learn more about the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings here.)