Which teams outperformed or underperformed expectations in 2011? Although the Denver Broncos won eight games and made the playoffs, based on their actual efficiency numbers and production, they were expected to win only five or six games. It's similar to Bill James' Pythagorean calculation for baseball except that, instead of runs, we're looking at how a team performed statistically and extrapolating the expected record for a team given that performance. To put it a different way: Which teams should have had better or worse records, and what does that mean for next season?
There are numerous ways to outperform expectations, among them playing better toward the end of games, forcing a lot of turnovers and winning close games. On the flip side, a team underperforms in relation to expectations when it is on the opposite side of that coin. (See: Eagles, Philadelphia).
Here are the five most overperforming teams of the 2011 NFL season: