Championship game upset chances

The spotlight will be on Colin Kaepernick again this weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Harry How/Getty Images

Last week, we rolled out our upset odds for the divisional round of the playoffs. We had the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots as solid favorites to win, with the Seattle Seahawks at just over 50 percent to pull off the upset. After coming out soft, the Seahawks stormed back, only to have Matt Ryan put together a game-winning field goal drive by his Atlanta Falcons in the final seconds. The Baltimore Ravens had only a 27.4 percent chance to take down the mighty Denver Broncos at Mile High, but managed to complete the challenge, extending Ray Lewis' career thanks in part to some pretty large gaffes by the Broncos.

This week, we look ahead to the AFC and NFC championship games. Four teams remain: San Francisco, Atlanta, Baltimore and New England. Using our advanced metrics, we project the rest of the postseason.

Please note that all rankings refer to the opponent-adjusted efficiency as calculated by numberFire, not the gross yardage.


No. 2 San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 Atlanta Falcons