Upset Watch: NFL Week 12

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Week 12 brings us a surprisingly close set of games. For the first time all year, the formula we use at Football Outsiders to make picks has no game with a projected point spread better than a touchdown. Among these closer-than-you-think games of Week 12, here's our list of the most likely upsets of the week (three-point spread or greater):