Upset Watch: Week 17

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) along with home-field advantage and injury data. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Week 17 brings us some hefty point spreads, with a lot of home teams looking for a win to get into the playoffs. As of this writing, only one game (San Francisco at Arizona) has a line below three points, although the Chicago-Green Bay game is still off the board. Here's a look at the most likely upsets for Week 17:

• Baltimore (+5.5) at Cincinnati
• Dallas (+7) vs. Philadelphia
• Detroit (+3) at Minnesota
New York Jets (+6.5) at Miami
• Washington (+3.5) at New York Giants

The game we've chosen for Upset Watch this week features two division rivals, with an underdog that is trying to get revenge for a blowout loss, play spoiler and maybe save the head coach's job.