Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) along with home-field advantage and injury data. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
Week 17 brings us some hefty point spreads, with a lot of home teams looking for a win to get into the playoffs. As of this writing, only one game (San Francisco at Arizona) has a line below three points, although the Chicago-Green Bay game is still off the board. Here's a look at the most likely upsets for Week 17:
The game we've chosen for Upset Watch this week features two division rivals, with an underdog that is trying to get revenge for a blowout loss, play spoiler and maybe save the head coach's job.