Football is a game of matchups, but attacking a weakness does not always mean attacking a specific player. Some defenses have trouble with certain types of passes because of personnel; sometimes, it is because of how the defensive scheme works.
So even without tracking which players are in coverage for every single pass, advanced stats can provide a window into where certain teams might be weak. For years at Football Outsiders, we've posted a table that gave our advanced DVOA metric for passes split by receiver type, seeing how teams did when covering the opposition's No. 1 receivers, No. 2 receivers, "other" receivers, tight ends or running backs. We also can use the play-by-play to track how teams defend passes in specific directions, or how they do against short passes compared to deep passes.
(DVOA is a metric that gives success based on down and distance, compared to a league baseline that adjusts for situation and opponent. You can find these tables for all teams on this page.)
We took a look at all these numbers to see where playoff contenders might specifically be vulnerable over the next few weeks. Note that numbers below do not account for sacks or passes without an intended receiver, and do not incorporate the Thursday night Chicago-Dallas game.
Baltimore Ravens vs. deep passes
The Ravens have perhaps the biggest coverage weakness of any playoff contender. The gap between Baltimore's coverage of short passes and deep passes could not possibly be wider. The Ravens have the best DVOA rating in the league against short passes (up to 15 yards through the air). They have the worst DVOA rating in the league against deep passes (16-plus yards through the air). They've allowed a league-high 60 percent completion rate on deep passes, and the average gain of 17.3 yards per pass is second only to the New York Jets at 18.3 yards.
It's been particularly horrific since cornerback Jimmy Smith went down with an injury in late October. Since Week 8, the Ravens are allowing a mind-blowing 77 percent completion rate on deep passes, with 22.7 yards per pass.
