NFL Upset Watch: Week 9

Tony Romo and the Cowboys could beat the Falcons with the right set of circumstances. Matthew Emmons/US Presswire

Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Upset Watch: Dallas (+4) at Atlanta

This week, there aren't any games that qualify as likely upsets based on the Outsiders formula. So instead, let's look at what would be this week's most interesting upset. Can the Dallas Cowboys end Atlanta's bid for an undefeated season?