Indianapolis Colts are overrated

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts have been a surprise team so far in 2012. David Dermer/Getty Images

We're more than halfway through the NFL season, so we should have a pretty good idea which teams are for real and which teams aren't by now.

Yet at Pro Football Focus we see that the perception of some surprising starts may be clouding the minds of some power rankings pollsters. After watching every player, on every play, of every game, our audit of the ESPN NFL Power Rankings shows two teams in need of some adjustment.

Which team is overrated and which is underrated this week? Let's find out.

Overrated -- Indianapolis Colts (No. 11)

So a win over the Miami Dolphins propels them to 11th? Seriously?

Nobody appreciates how impressive Andrew Luck has been more than we do. He overcame four dropped passes against Miami to manage an adjusted accuracy percentage of 73.9 percent and he did it by going deep (balls thrown over 20 yards in the air) on 20.8 percent of his attempts. He was, quite frankly, superb.

But one game does not make a quarterback. The Colts have put an awful lot on the first overall pick of the 2012 draft and as expected, he continues to take his lumps and develop on the job. For the season, he has an adjusted accuracy percentage of 67.9 percent (fourth lowest in the league) and is only 14th of all quarterbacks in our grading system. He's exciting, but not a finished product.