Betting Indianapolis-Jacksonville

Can Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts tonight? Getty Images

There's so much luck (no pun intended) in stinking at the right time in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts have managed to pull this off perfectly, getting the top pick in drafts when they were desperate for a franchise quarterback, or an heir apparent to one.

We knew the "Andrew Luck is unbelievable" bandwagon would start at some point. But for it to already have reached capacity midway through his rookie season is incredible. The Colts have the inside track now on a wild-card berth in the AFC. Their season O/U wins projection at most sportsbooks before the year was 5.5.

Luck isn't just potentially the best rookie quarterback ever -- it's reasonable to say he's already a top-10 quarterback in the league. He set a rookie record with 433 yards last week; he's fourth in Total QBR; and given where the Colts were last season, an argument could be made that he's a sleeper MVP candidate.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, are stuck playing Blaine Gabbert, who has shown virtually no signs that he'll ever be capable of leading a team to sustained success. But because he was a high first-round pick, there's a feeling of obligation to give him every opportunity.

The question for the Colts in tonight's game is whether they'll be able to avoid an emotional letdown following coach Chuck Pagano's postgame speech to the team after last week's 23-20 victory over Miami.

Not surprisingly, according to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, fans have overwhelming confidence (68.5 percent) that the Colts will cover the spread. Luck versus Gabbert? The public likely would lay 10 points in this game if need be.

Let's turn to some line movement analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton and a pick on the game from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Opened at Colts minus-3; now Colts minus-3.5
Total: Opened at 42; now 42.5