Most experts agree: South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney is the best player in college football right now and the best pass-rushing prospect in years. Despite the importance of the quarterback position and the number of fine quarterbacks who will be available next year, Clowney is the odds-on favorite to be the first overall selection in the 2014 NFL draft. But which teams will spend the season jockeying for the right to overhaul their pass rush with a single player?
In our book "Football Outsiders Almanac 2013," we forecast the upcoming season with a complicated formula that accounts for everything from performance the past two years to personnel changes to injury history. Then we simulate the season a million times, accounting for all the randomness and unknown variables that will also impact the upcoming season.
So to look at which teams are most likely to be in position to draft Clowney, we started with the eight teams projected to finish in last place in their division most often. We've also added the two other teams that averaged 6.5 wins or fewer in our simulations. For each team, we'll list how often they went 4-12 or worse in our simulations, which would put them right in Clowney territory.
Here are the projected 10 worst teams in the NFL this season: