Week 1 Upset Watch

Upset Watch appears every week this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings explained here, and early in the season, DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of three or more points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Week 1 usually brings a lot of upsets in the NFL. Nobody knows for sure just how good teams will be in 2013. Despite all of the advanced statistics we have, even our Football Outsiders projections need time to calibrate for the true talent of the new rosters.

Unfortunately, the same things that make it tough for Vegas to set the odds also make it tough for us to figure out which odds are most likely to be incorrect. Nonetheless, based on what we know from the FBO preseason projections, our pick for Upset Watch probably comes from the following games:

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at St. Louis Rams

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

One of these games sticks out more and makes it the upset pick of the week.