The immense popularity of the NFL causes everyone from TV analysts, fantasy football experts and sports bettors to overreact to a single game, especially at the start of a new season. It's small sample size meets market hysteria. Peyton Manning is on pace to throw 112 touchdowns; the Steelers are done; Chip Kelly is the greatest thing to happen to NFL offense since the illegal contact rule was implemented. With every overreaction motivating sportsbooks to keep shading lines, sharp bettors are more than willing to grab the value this creates. Looking ahead to Week 2, there are already a handful of matchups ripe for the picking for savvy NFL bettors.
In order to translate this betting strategy into a tangible NFL system, I turned to our Bet Labs software to isolate all Week 2 teams coming off Week 1 losses since 2005. I then included additional filters like home/visitor and favorite/underdog. The table below breaks down the results.