Week 3 Upset Watch

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of more than three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Week 3 seems to be the week of the small spread. Obviously, not entirely the small spread: After all, Seattle is favored over Jacksonville by 20 kazillion points. However, there also are plenty of very possible "upsets" with lines of 1.5 or 2.5 points.

Still, with Upset Watch we set ourselves a rule to pick games with a spread of at least a field goal, and we're sticking to it. So let us not hear talk of the Atlanta Falcons getting two points in Miami! Based on FO stats, the most likely upsets of the week (with a minimum line of three points) are:

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis Rams (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

San Diego Chargers (+3) at Tennessee Titans

Our choice for Week 3's most likely upset gets mixed up in questions of how well we can judge teams this early in the season, because we don't know much about how we can judge their opponents, either.