Week 4 Upset Watch

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of more than three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season seems to be the week of the home underdogs. Seven games this week have lines favoring the visiting team, not counting the game in London, where Minnesota is technically the home team but Pittsburgh is favored by 1.5 points. Six of these games have a line of at least three points, which gives us some interesting choices for this week's Upset Watch. Based on FO stats, the most likely upsets of the week are: