With four weeks of the NFL season in the books, you can see how our contrarian approach to sports betting is applied. Each week, we look for overreactions in the sports betting market to pinpoint teams that are overvalued and undervalued by the betting public. Last week, all four of our system matches were home teams playing opponents that started the season 3-0 against the spread. Three of our matches (Tennessee, San Diego and New Orleans) covered easily, and our fourth play, Houston, was well on its way until Matt Schaub threw a back-breaking pick-six that allowed Seattle to tie the score late in the fourth quarter en route to an overtime win.
While watching these teams play so well at home, I began wondering how they follow up these performances. Is a big home win actually more likely to spur a winning streak? Or do teams become overvalued because of a single instance of overperformance in the comforts of home? As always, I turned to our Bet Labs data analysis software and was able to construct a betting system with a 61.5 percent ATS win rate that not only has four system matches this week, but can also be applied every week of the season.
My initial hypothesis was very simple: Teams coming off a big win or "easy cover" at home could potentially be overvalued the following week.