Week 6 Upset Watch

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

No, we're not going to do something crazy like recommend you take Jacksonville over Denver this week, although that would be a lot of fun, wouldn't it? And we can't choose any of this week's games with a 2.5-point line either. That leaves us with these games as the most likely upsets of the week (three-point spread or greater) based on FO stats:

• Baltimore (+3) vs. Green Bay

• Buffalo (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati

• St. Louis (+7.5) at Houston

• Washington (+5.5) at Dallas

For this week's pick, we're going with a game that would bring more turmoil to the NFL's most mediocre division. Remember when Washington was supposed to be this year's favorite in the NFC East. Who knows, maybe it could be again.