NFL Week 7 Upset Watch

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

The watchword for Week 7 is "preseason favorites." A number of teams that have dramatically underperformed compared to preseason expectations are still listed as Week 7 favorites, including the Giants, Falcons, Steelers and 49ers. Games like this figure prominently on our list of the most likely upsets of the week (three-point spread or greater) based on FO stats:

• Buffalo (+8.5) at Miami
• Minnesota (+3) at New York Giants
New York Jets (+4) vs. New England
• Tampa Bay (+7) at Atlanta
• Tennessee (+4) vs. San Francisco

Despite all the underperforming teams that could easily get upset this week, our pick for the most likely upset involves two teams that, at 4-2, are matching or even exceeding preseason expectations.