Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
Once again, a slate of just 13 games limits our ability to search for a good upset in Week 9. Nevertheless, a number of home underdogs have intriguing opportunities to put up surprise victories. Based on Football Outsiders stats, the most likely upsets of the week (three-point spread or greater) are: