Throughout the 2013 NFL season, we've analyzed historical trends in order to find value in the sports betting marketplace. So far, we've bet against the public, bought new coaches early in the season and used bye weeks for good teams to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. However, the main theme of this column has been to educate bettors about how recent results cause betting market overreactions that can be exploited to maximize value through contrarian betting.
One of the easiest, most effective ways to implement this strategy is being willing to back teams coming off blowout losses. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, I created a system based on this theory before the 2012 season and followed it to an 18-9 (66.7 percent) record against the spread. This system has once again been profitable this season and is pointing to a handful of games in Week 10 offering contrarian value.
In this system, I define a "blowout" as a loss of 10 or more points. While running the analysis, I noticed that teams that got blown out as underdogs performed better ATS in their following game than those blown out as favorites. Building on this, I looked at underdogs at different point-spread levels and found some interesting results. The table below summarizes the analysis.