Upset Watch: NFL Week 11

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

By this point in the season, injuries play a major role in adjusting the lines in Vegas. As an example, injuries in Chicago make the Bears a smaller favorite against Baltimore than their play throughout the season would suggest. The same goes for injuries in Cincinnati, which have affected the Bengals' game with Cleveland. And the loss of Aaron Rodgers makes 5-4 Green Bay an underdog against the 3-6 Giants.

Here's our list of the most likely upsets of the week (three-point spread or greater):