Nobody knows nothin'.
What else can you say when a 50-1 shot wins the Derby (technically Mine That Bird was a 50.6-1 shot, according to horse racing genius Joe Drape at The New York Times). Not a single expert considered any horse outside of the top contenders -- I Want Revenge before he was pulled, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire -- as anything other than gate-fillers, like no-name actors taking a seat when Leo and Denzel need a bathroom break at the Oscars.
Turns out, nobody knows nothin'. Which is why the point of this column, using Derby results to forecast the Preakness, might be a fool's errand. Seriously, the last time a horse with odds as long as Mine that Bird's won the Derby was in 1913. Were they riding side-saddle back then?