Nobody knows nothin'.
What else can you say when a 50-1 shot wins the Derby (technically Mine That Bird was a 50.6-1 shot, according to horse racing genius Joe Drape at the New York Times ). Not a single expert considered any horse outside of the top contenders—I Want Revenge before he was pulled, Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile and Friesan Fire—as anything other than gatefillers, like no name actors taking a seat when Leo and Denzel need a bathroom break at the Oscars.
Turns out, nobody knows nothin'. Which is why the point of this column, using Derby results to forecast the Preakness, may be a fool's errand. Seriously, the last time a horse with odds as long as Mine that Bird's won the Derby was in 1913. Were they riding side-saddle back then?