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Josh Allen, Bills determined to end drought against rival Patriots

Patriots (2-4) at Bills (5-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Matchup rating: 53.9 | Spread: BUF -3.5 (42.5)

What to watch for: In three career games against the Patriots, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has completed just 48.4% of his passes, averaging just 192.6 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, Bills coach Sean McDermott is winless in six tries against Bill Belichick. Look for both men to change their fortunes Sunday. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: Punters Jake Bailey (Patriots) and Corey Bojorquez (Bills) will play defining roles in determining the final outcome. Temperatures in Western New York are expected to be in the 40s, with a chance of rain and wind gusts possibly exceeding 20 miles per hour. So ball-handling and field position will be critical. Bailey has been excellent this season -- he's the AFC leader in net punting at 47.9 yards -- while Bojorquez has shown a powerful leg when the Bills are pinned deep (a long of 72 yards). -- Mike Reiss

Stat to know: This is the Patriots' first three-game losing streak since 2002, when they lost four straight. And per the Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time they are more than two games back in the division at any point in a season since 2000. To get back on track, they'll need a jump in performance from quarterback Cam Newton, who has a 15.3 Total QBR in his last three starts.

Injuries: Patriots | Bills

What to know for fantasy: Who gets right? The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on 5.4% of their passes faced this season (below league average and way down from their league leading rate of 2.4% last season), but Allen is coming off a game against the Jets in which he threw 43 passes without a score. See Week 8 rankings.

Betting nugget: This is the first time New England has been an underdog in a division game since Week 2 of the 2015 season (at Buffalo). Read more.

Reiss' pick: Bills 23, Patriots 20

Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 20, Patriots 10

FPI prediction: BUF, 58.8% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Patriots ready to provide slumping Newton the support he needs ... Are the Bills ready to bury the Patriots, seize control of AFC East? ... Patriots QB Newton admits starting job could be in jeopardy after being pulled in loss ... Against zone coverage, Bills' Beasley, Allen find ways to thrive