Early-tourney exit potential for top 10

Do the Jayhawks and Blue Devils have a lot to fear in the tournament's first weekend? Getty Images

With just two weeks until Selection Sunday, we might not know about tourney matchups yet, but key traits are readily apparent. And for fans of some of the best teams in the country, that means it’s time to start worrying.

Giant Killers IDs the most likely NCAA tournament upsets using a process laid out in a little more detail in the right column. Our vaunted statistical model is able to assign a rating to each Giant, based on the likelihood that it would lose to a generic Giant Killer. In evaluating the top 10 teams in the current AP poll, it finds a pretty large disparity in how safe each squad should feel during the tourney’s first weekend. Here’s a closer look, in decreasing order of vulnerability.

Saint Louis Billikens

AP Poll Rank: 10

Giant Rating: 71.3

As we addressed two weeks ago, St. Louis plays much more like a Killer than a Giant. And as the Billikens try to live up to a top-10 ranking and a potential No. 4 seed, that could prove problematic. Granted, Saint Louis should still beat a generic GK more than seven out of 10 times. But that’s not a strong enough rating to feel safe, especially given the issues our model identifies.