NFL Week 11 upset picks: How the Vikings beat the Bears

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are off their bye and ready for Chicago. Can they pull the upset? Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 in the NFL featured 10 games with a spread of at least 5.5 points. Four of those underdogs won, doubling the total number of such underdog wins in the previous six weeks. Things look a lot tighter in Week 11 with only three games with a larger spread scheduled.

Our focus is on the prime-time games to end the week with a battle for first place in Chicago and an expected shootout on Monday night.

Upset watch: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

First place in the NFC North is on the line on Sunday night when Chicago hosts Minnesota. The Bears are the No. 4 team in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings while the Vikings are 14th. A notable part of that disparity is how these teams handled lowly Buffalo. The Bears had their second-highest DVOA (47.8 percent) in a game this season in an easy 41-9 win, while the Vikings, a 16.5-point favorite, had that stunning 27-6 loss at home in Week 3. That was easily Minnesota's worst game this season with a DVOA of -49.5 percent.

The Vikings are coming off a bye week,