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NFL conference championship betting nuggets: Patrick Mahomes dominant in revenge games

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are favored in their 13th straight playoff game. but Cincinnati has found success as a road underdog this season. AP Photo/Ed Zurga

Underdogs went 3-1 outright in the Divisional Round, setting up two rematches on Conference Championship Sunday. San Francisco looks to be the third team in the Super Bowl era to beat a team three times in the same season, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Cincinnati looks to be the second team to defeat Patrick Mahomes twice in the same season.

Kansas City is favored for the 13th consecutive playoff game, breaking a tie with 2014-18 New England for the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his 10 career playoff games. However, Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 outright this season when getting at least 3 points.

San Francisco has won six straight meetings against Los Angeles, including each of the last five meetings when it has been an underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 outright in his career as an underdog, the best outright record by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era.


Playoff Trends

Favorites are 6-4 ATS this postseason but were 1-3 ATS and outright in the Divisional Round. Unders are 6-4 this postseason (2-2 in Divisional Round). Home teams are 13-3 outright and 11-5 ATS in Conference Championship games in the past eight seasons (since 2013). Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons (4-0 previous 2 seasons).

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET

  • Cincinnati upset Kansas City as a 3.5-point home underdog in Week 17. The game finished with 65 points, going over the total of 51.

  • This is the 13th straight playoff game Kansas City has been favored in, which will break a tie with 2014-18 New England Patriots for the longest postseason streak in the Super Bowl era. New England's streak ended at Kansas City in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.

  • This is the 35th straight game Mahomes will be favored in, tying Danny White for the 6th-longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

  • Kansas City is the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in its first 19 games (last four: 2017 New England, 2013 Denver, 2007 New England, 2001 St. Louis).

  • Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his postseason career, all as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs when favored by at least four points.

  • Mahomes is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS in his career against teams he lost to earlier in the season, including 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS since 2019.

  • Teams favored by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). The last favorite of at least four points to be upset in the Conference Championship game was New England (-8) in 2012 against Baltimore.

  • Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 outright as an underdog of at least three points this season.

  • Mahomes is 11-16-1 ATS in his career when the total is 54 or higher. He is 31-14 ATS when the total is lower.

  • Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and has covered six straight games and four straight road games.

  • Kansas City has covered six straight home games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records.

  • Cincinnati's last six playoff games have all gone under the total including both games this season. Since ESPN had access to complete over/under data (1986), Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS and 1-6 outright in games with totals 53 or higher.


San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5), Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET

  • San Francisco has won all six meetings since 2019 (5-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in five of those six games.

  • Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 outright and ATS against Sean McVay.

  • San Francisco was a 3.5-point home underdog in Week 10 and a 3-point road underdog in Week 18. The totals were 50 (under) and 46.5 (over) respectively.

  • San Francisco is the 26th team in the Super Bowl era to be an underdog against the same opponent three times in one season including the playoffs. The only teams to upset the same team three times in one season are the St. Louis Rams (vs Seattle) in 2004 and the Tennessee Titans (vs Jacksonville) in 1999.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 straight up as a betting underdog. That is the best straight up mark by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).

  • San Francisco is 27-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 18-10 ATS as a road underdog.

  • San Francisco is playing on the road for the fourth consecutive week. In the last 35 seasons, teams playing at least four straight games on the road are 2-7 straight up and 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-6 in the playoffs (0-5-1 ATS).

  • The last team to win four straight games, all on the road was Kansas City in 1966. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye in between since 1961.

  • Teams to pull off betting upsets in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds are 5-10 outright and 9-6 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era. The last team to pull off outright upsets in each of the first three playoff rounds was 2010 Green Bay.

  • San Francisco is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games with four straight covers.

  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs under Kyle Shanahan. The under is 4-1 in those games.

  • The under is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last six home games. Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.

  • Six-seeds are 2-5 outright and ATS in conference title games including 1-4 outright and ATS as underdogs.