Betting tips for Eastern Conference finals: Heat-Celtics Game 4

Bam Adebayo scored 31 points in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals and could have another big game Monday night. Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Heat-Celtics Game 4

Sticking with Smart: In this Game 3, we encouraged you to take the over on Marcus Smart's prop markets, and we are doing the same in this huge game for the Celtics. Smart led the team in shots (22) and non-scoring opportunities (assists plus turnovers, 13) in Game 2, and despite a badly rolled ankle and foul trouble in Game 3, he hit over his points prop with 16 and led the team in non-scoring opportunities (11). The Celtics are comfortable with the ball in Smart's hands, and the Heat also seem to be OK with him determining their fate. So why not take advantage of that in a critical game at home?

Big on Bam: Miami netted a huge Game 3 from Bam Adebayo, who played a postseason-high 41 minutes in a 109-103 victory after Jimmy Butler left with a knee injury. With Butler questionable for Monday's Game 4 in Boston, Adebayo has reasonable pricing in daily fantasy ($6,500 on DraftKings) and achievable scoring and defensive props. He is expected to deliver around 40 fantasy points and has a high ceiling Monday night.

-- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe

Breaking down Game 4

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC, TD Garden, Boston

Line: Celtics (-6.5)
Money line: Celtics (-280), Heat (+230)
Total: 207.5 points
BPI projected total: 210.8 points
BPI win%: Celtics (67.4%)

Questionable: Marcus Smart (ankle), Robert Williams III (knee), Jimmy Butler (knee), P.J. Tucker (knee), , Kyle Lowry (hamstring)

Ruled out: Tyler Herro (groin)
Note: BPI numbers factor in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play.

Notable: Over tickets have cashed on just five of Miami's 14 playoff games, including all three games of the Eastern Conference finals thus far.

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 27.5 points. Tatum tied his lowest-scoring game of the postseason with 10 points in Game 3. Prior to that game, he had averaged 31.5 PPG over his past six playoff games. The Celtics will need Tatum to step up if they want to win the series, and I expect him to come out strong tonight. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds. Tatum struggled in Game 3, scoring 10 points (3-for-14 FG) with six boards and four assists in a close loss that put the Celtics down two games to one. This is eerily similar to what happened in the last round against the Bucks. Tatum struggled in Game 3, scoring 10 points (4-for-19 FG) with one rebound and three assists in a close loss that put the Celtics down 2-1. After that game, Tatum responded by averaging 36.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists over his next three outings. I expect a similar bounce-back for Tatum this time around, starting with a big effort in Game 4. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 4.5 assists. Butler missed the second half of Game 3 because of knee inflammation and is listed as questionable for Game 4. He has averaged 5.2 assists per game during the playoffs and could play the role of facilitator Monday night for the Heat. -- Moody

Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds. Adebayo had a huge performance in Game 3 and showed that the Heat can count on him to open up the floor for the offense. Adebayo led Miami in points (31), rebounds (10), assists (6), steals (4) and blocks (1) in a playoff game for the first time in his career. The Heat, who lead this series 2-1, should lean heavily on him in Game 4. -- Moody

Best bet: Celtics -6.0. The Heat have won just two of 12 quarters in this series -- the third quarter of Game 1 and the first quarter of Game 3. Miami won both those quarters by a combined 46 points, but the Celtics have won the other 10 quarters by a combined 54 points. The Celtics are at home with their backs against the wall, so I think it is unlikely they will suffer another disastrous quarter in Game 4. Boston should win comfortably. -- Snellings

Best bet: Over 207.5 points. I've hammered the over in every game of this series, and the over is 3-0. Both the Celtics and Heat are excellent defensive teams with offenses diverse and powerful enough to score reasonably over the course of the game. Over their past five matchups, including the regular season, the two teams have averaged a combined 216.8 PPG and have gone over 207.5 in four of the five outings. -- Snellings