<
>

Stanley Cup Final Game 5: Betting tips and picks for Tampa Bay Lightning-Colorado Avalanche

Anthony Cirelli, left, and the Lightning will look to keep their season alive Nathan MacKinnon, right, and the Avalanche. Mark LoMoglio/NHLI via Getty Images

The Stanley Cup will be in the building at Ball Arena on Friday night as the Colorado Avalanche look to finish off the Tampa Bay Lightning and clinch their third championship in franchise history. Finishing off the two-time defending champs will not be easy, but the Lightning will have to forget about the controversial OT game-winning goal from Game 4 if they are to have a chance of sending the series to Game 6.

As always, you can catch the action live on ABC, ESPN+ and the ESPN App at 8 p.m. EDT, with ESPN+ offering a live stats feed and bonus camera angles.

All odds below courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.


Stanley Cup Final Game 5: Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche


Puck line: Colorado -1.5
Money line: Tampa Bay (+150), Colorado (-170)
Total: 6


Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL writer: Tampa Bay Lightning UNDER 2.5 goals (-115)

The Lightning managed only two goals in Game 4 with home ice and the last line change. That does not bode well for Game 5 back in Denver. In Game 1, the Avalanche had an expected goals against in all situations of 1.67 per 60 minutes -- the Lightning scored three goals in Darcy Kuemper's first game in over two weeks. In Game 2, the expected goals per 60 minutes was 1.09. The Avalanche can throw Nathan MacKinnon's line against the Steven Stamkos trio and pin the Lightning's top line in their own zone. Nazem Kadri's return gives them a stronger second line, too. Kuemper's playing well and the Avalanche have killed off 13 of 14 power plays. Unless the Avalanche are just not made for his moment, it's hard to imagine the Lightning scoring three or more goals in this game.

Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-135)

Sometimes you play the stats. MacKinnon has gone over this total in six of nine home games this postseason. He has averaged nearly 24 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during nine home games, so he's dealing in volume. But then sometimes you play the situation. MacKinnon has waited nine years in the NHL and decades of his life for the chance to hoist the Stanley Cup. He's one win away. He was over this total in both games in Tampa. He's going to leave it all out there in Game 5 for the chance at glory.

play
2:30

Kevin Weekes credits Avs' grit in Game 4 OT win

Kevin Weekes joins SVP to break down Colorado's incredible comeback win in Game 4 over the Lightning.

Sachin Dave Chandan, ESPN betting editor: Second period, highest-scoring period (+260)

The second period has seen multiple goals scored in every single game this series. Obviously, second periods do tend to be the highest-scoring period due to the long change, but this time I believe you're getting a good price here from Caesars at +260. Although be warned, there is a higher-than-normal risk of empty-netters in the third, since the Lightning would be playing for their series lives if they were to be trailing in the third.

First scorer list


Shots on goal