<
>

Betting tips for Week 9 English Premier League games and more

Trent Alexander-Arnold has 14 goals in 235 games for Liverpool. Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images

Soccer continues this week with Premier League games and more.

So which team should you be betting and what are the big storylines? Our analysts are here to offer all the input you need.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.


The EPL is back in business this weekend after sitting out last weekend for the last international window prior to the World Cup. And what better way to kick things off than Arsenal (-102) vs. Tottenham (+260)? Who do you like and why?

Dan Thomas: Draw. Draw. Draw. Everything about this game feels like it's going to be a point apiece. Arsenal will dominate and take the lead early, but Spurs will grind them down and the spoils will be shared.

Paul Carr: As much as I hate agreeing with Dan, the draw (+270) seems like the best bet on the three-way line. Tottenham will likely let Arsenal have more of the ball, then look to strike on the counter, and Arsenal hasn't been great at putting games away this season. Spurs have scored in every league game this season, including draws at Chelsea and West Ham, and only held one opponent below 0.7 expected goals. The Gunners have also scored in every game, but gave up three goals on 1.6 expected goals in their one game against a Big 6 opponent (Man United). A 1-1 or 2-2 final looks to be in the cards.

Dalen Cuff: I'm aware, my bias is showing here. The guys above are probably right, a draw is the play. So I am looking for different angles. Over 2.5 goals, which I love at -145. Both teams to score, I also love at -170. It's not a good value, but they are very good plays that I'll probably lay some money on. But where I'm definitely going to go is a straight Gunners win bet at +105. At home, against your biggest rival, off an international break ... this is more my heart than head2, but still if they're going to be a top-4 club, these are games they need to win -- which they haven't done in years.

There has been some controversy this week about whether Trent Alexander-Arnold deserves inclusion on England's national team. Would you be willing to take a chance on the Liverpool lad scoring this week against Brighton at (+2000)?

Carr: He has 14 goals in 235 games for Liverpool, so playing him at +2000 to score isn't unreasonable. Thiago Alcantara should be healthy and rested in Liverpool's midfield, so the Reds should be finding the form we expected from them before the season. But if I had to make a play on this game, I'd take the goal and a half on Brighton. The Seagulls have played well on the road this season, winning at Old Trafford and London Stadium and probably deserving at least a point at Craven Cottage. Liverpool and Brighton have similar expected-goals numbers this season, and even though there's always the potential for Liverpool to blow the doors off an opponent at Anfield, I'd go with Brighton +1.5 (-125).

Thomas: Of course! He's well rested!

Cuff: A sprinkle on a long shot flyer? Sure, why not? But think it's highly unlikely to hit. I like Paul's play above, but also contemplating both teams to score, no draw at +145.

Speaking of the Three Lions, their Nations League outings this past week (1-0 loss to Italy, 3-3 draw with Germany) didn't exactly turn Nick Pope into a fan favorite. Do we see any bets we like to take advantage of the residual shell-shock lingering for the Newcastle keeper as he faces Fulham?

Carr: I like goals in this game, and not just because of Pope's international struggles. Fulham matches have had the most total expected goals of any in the Premier League this season, averaging 3.0 per game, and Newcastle isn't far behind at 2.7 total expected goals per game. Both teams rank in the top six in total shots per game as well, so there should be plenty of action in front of goal. Plus Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrovic apparently can't be stopped. He has six goals in seven Premier League games this season, and he scored four times in two Nations League games for Serbia in the past week. I'm taking over 2.5 goals (-105) in this match.

Thomas: Not sure I like the anti-English tone of the question. Fulham have looked good so far this season. Meanwhile, we've only seen Newcastle shine in patches. I fancy a draw in this one.

Cuff: Fulham have been solid early in the campaign with 11 points through seven matches, good for sixth place. They've had strong results at home (2-0-1), and those wins are over upstart Brighton, Brentford, and the draw was the season opener against Liverpool. I like them to defend the Cottage well. There will be goals but good value on the two-way market; draw, no bet Fulham +115.

What are you looking at in the other European leagues?

Thomas: I'd take the over in goals at Old Trafford. Should be a thoroughly entertaining tie.

What is your best bet for the weekend?

Carr: Entering Saturday's match at Crystal Palace, Chelsea has a ton of lineup questions, for reasons ranging from injuries to the international break to Graham Potter's first Premier League game. Because of that, I prefer the stability of Patrick Vieira's Palace side, which played Arsenal and Liverpool well and led 2-0 at the Etihad before Man City turned into Man City. The odds suggest that Chelsea (-116 to win) has improved simply by firing Thomas Tuchel. Maybe that's the case, but we haven't seen it yet. I'll side with Palace and take the half goal at -105.

Cuff: Southampton hosts Everton in what should be a low-scoring affair. The Saints have mustered just seven goals through seven games (shut out in their last two outings), while Everton has just five in as many. However, the Toffees' road form has been solid, getting a point in two of their their road matches. I love the under 2.5 goals at -120, but I'm also going to play the draw at +235.