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College football Week 5 betting trends: Is Clemson on upset alert?

DJ Uiagalelei and the Clemson Tigers face off against a stout N.C. State team in a pivotal ACC matchup on Saturday night. Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images

Week 5 of the college football season features more teams around the country starting their conference schedule, including five matchups between ranked teams in the AP Top 25.

No. 2 Alabama takes on No. 20 Arkansas in Fayetteville, No. 7 Kentucky will travel to Oxford to face No. 13 Ole Miss in a battle of undefeated SEC teams, No. 22 Wake Forest squares up against No. 23 Florida State and No. 5 Clemson welcomes No. 10 NC State to Memorial Stadium for a primetime ACC showdown on ABC.

But which games should bettors look at across this weekends slate?

We have everything you need to make your wagering decisions ahead of Week 5.

Check out all of the betting notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.


Thursday

Utah State at No. 19 BYU (-24, 61.5)
8 p.m. ET on ESPN, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo

  • Utah State is one of four FBS teams that is 0-4 ATS this season.

  • Utah State is 2-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the start of the 2017 season (1-1 ATS under Blake Anderson).

  • Kalani Sitake is 3-2 SU and ATS against Utah State since becoming BYU head coach.

  • The 24-point spread is the largest BYU has been favorited against Utah State since 2008 (-29).

Friday

No. 15 Washington at UCLA (-3.5, 64.5)
10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Rose Bowl, Pasadena

  • Washington is one of eight FBS teams that is 4-0 ATS this season.

  • All five Washington road games have gone under the total since the start of last season.

  • UCLA is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Washington.

  • Road favorites are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS in Pac-12 play this season.

Saturday

No. 4 Michigan (-10, 42.5) at Iowa
12 p.m. ET, Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City

  • Iowa is 9-2 ATS against AP Top-5 ranked teams since the start of the 2008 season.

  • Michigan is 11-4 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span (min. 10 games as a favorite).

  • Seven of Michigan's last eight road games have gone over the total.

  • Michigan has lost four consecutive games outright at Iowa (2-2 ATS).

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (-7, 54.5)
12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford

  • Kentucky is 15-5-2 ATS against AP-ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season.

  • 15 of Kentucky's 20 road games have gone under the total since the start of the 2018 season.

  • This is the largest favorite Ole Miss has been against an AP Top 10 team since the FBS/FCS split in 1978.

  • Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS as a favorite against AP Top 10 teams since the FBS/FBS split in 1978.

No. 18 Oklahoma (-3, 46) at TCU
12 p.m. ET on ABC, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth

  • Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against TCU.

  • The over is 15-3 in Oklahoma games following a straight-up loss since the start of the 2012 season.

  • TCU is 1-5 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

  • Road favorites are 12-6 SU and 8-9-1 ATS in Big 12 play since the start of last season (Oklahoma 0-3 ATS in that spot).

Purdue at No. 21 Minnesota (-10.5, 53.5)
12 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

  • Minnesota is one of eight FBS teams that is 4-0 ATS this season.

  • Minnesota has been a double-digit favorite in three of their four games this season (3-0 ATS in those games).

  • Purdue is 19-7 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2014 season (8-4 ATS in that spot under Jeff Brohm).

  • Purdue is 10-4 ATS against AP-ranked teams under Jeff Brohm, best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span.

Texas Tech at Kansas State (-7.5, 57.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan

  • Kansas State is 4-0-1 ATS against Texas Tech since the start of the 2017 season.

  • Kansas State is 12-5-1 ATS as a favorite under Chris Klieman, the best cover percentage as a favorite in the Big 12 since the start of the 2019 season.

  • Texas Tech is 2-4 SU and ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the last season.

  • Favorites of seven or more points are 0-3 ATS in Big 12 play this season.

Oregon State at No. 12 Utah (-10.5, 56.5)
2 p.m. ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City

  • Oregon State is one of eight FBS teams that is 4-0 ATS this season.

  • Oregon State is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the start of the 2020 season.

  • Oregon State is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2019 season, the best cover percentage among Power 5 programs over that span (min. 5 games as a road underdog).

  • Utah is 3-0 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.

No. 2 Alabama (-16.5, 61.5) at No. 20 Arkansas
3:30 p.m. ET, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville

  • Alabama has never lost outright to Arkansas under Nick Saban (8-6-1 ATS).

  • Alabama is 18-6 SU, 12-12 ATS on the road against AP Top-20 SEC opponents under Nick Saban.

  • Arkansas is 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS following a straight-up loss under Sam Pittman.

  • Arkansas has not beaten an AP Top-5 team since 2007 (0-17 SU, 8-9 ATS).

Rutgers at No. 3 Ohio State (-41, 59.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Ohio Stadium, Columbus

  • Rutgers is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2020 season, the best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span (min. 5 games as a road underdog).

  • All eight Rutgers away games since the start of last season have gone under the total.

  • Ohio State is 9-4 ATS at home in Big Ten play under Ryan Day.

  • Ohio State is 17-9-1 ATS as a favorite in Big Ten play under Ryan Day.

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (-2.5, 54.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, McLane Stadium, Waco

  • Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS on the road since the start of last season; 1 of 3 teams in the FBS with an undefeated ATS record on the road since the start of last season (min. 2 road games).

  • Oklahoma State is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season, the best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 2 games as an underdog).

  • Baylor is 3-0 ATS against AP Top-10 teams since the start of last season.

  • Baylor is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season.

Northwestern at No. 11 Penn State (-25.5, 52)
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Beaver Stadium, University Park

  • Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in road games since the start if last season.

  • Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a straight-up loss.

  • Penn State is 4-8 ATS when favorited by 20 or more in Big Ten play under James Franklin.

  • Penn State is 4-7 ATS as a home favorite in Big Ten play since the start of the 2019 season.

No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State (-6.5, 66)
3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee

  • Wake Forest is 16-6 ATS against AP-ranked teams under Dave Clawson.

  • Each of the last seven games Wake Forest-Florida State games have gone under the total.

  • This is the first time under Mike Norvell that Florida State has been a favorite against a AP-ranked opponent.

  • Florida State has covered four consecutive ACC games dating back to last season.

No. 17 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (-3, 46)
4 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville

  • All four of Texas A&M's games have gone under the total this season.

  • Texas A&M is 0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS as a road underdog under Jimbo Fisher.

  • Mississippi State is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS as a favorite in SEC play under Mike Leach.

  • Mississippi State is 7-4 ATS against Texas A&M since the FBS/FCS split in 1978.

No. 1 Georgia (-27.5, 54.5) at Missouri
7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia

  • Georgia is 5-0 ATS in road games since the start of last season (all as favorites).

  • All 4 of Georgia's games have gone under the total this season.

  • Missouri is 6-14 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the past 10 seasons, the worst such cover percentage in the SEC over that span.

  • Missouri has covered 4 of its last 5 games against AP Top 5 teams.

No. 10 NC State at No. 5 Clemson (-6.5, 42)
7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Memorial Stadium, Clemson

  • Clemson is 19-7-1 ATS against AP Top 10 teams under Dabo Swinney.

  • Clemson is 9-2 ATS under AP Top 10 ACC teams under Dabo Swinney.

  • NC State is 4-12 ATS in road games since the start of the 2019 season.

  • NC State is 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road against AP Top 5 teams under Dave Doeren.

Georgia Tech at No. 24 Pittsburgh (-24, 50.5)
8 p.m ET on ACC Network, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

  • Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS in home games this season.

  • Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS against Georgia Tech since the start of the 2018 season.

  • All four of Georgia Tech's games this season have gone under the total.

  • Georgia Tech is 3-10 ATS against AP-ranked teams over the past 5 seasons, the worst such cover percentage in the ACC over that span.

Arizona State at No. 6 USC (-26, 61.5)
10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles

  • All four of Arizona States games have gone under the total this season.

  • Arizona State is 4-0 ATS against AP Top 10 teams since the start of the 2016 season.

  • The 26-point spread is the largest favorite USC has been in a Pac-12 game since 2017.

  • All four of USC's games this season have gone under the total.

Stanford at No. 13 Oregon (-16.5, 62.5)
11 p.m. ET, Autzen Stadium, Eugene

  • Stanford is 3-15 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of the 2019 season.

  • Stanford is 2-10 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

  • Oregon has covered 4 consecutive games as a home favorite.

  • Oregon is 9-15-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite over the past five seasons.