2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Odds, Picks, Betting tips

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Tuesday, April 11 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Tuesday

Two pivotal Play-In games tip tonight as the 2023 postseason gets underway. The higher seeds are sizable favorites in each matchup, although there are additional paths to these contests via prop plays and DFS lineups.

You've surely heard all about Rudy Gobert's suspension and the drama surrounding the Minnesota Timberwolves, yet it's time to consider the fantasy fallout of this situation. All signs point to building around Karl-Anthony Towns in daily fantasy competition tonight at just $8,600 on DraftKings. My model projects the gifted stretch big to tally 50 fantasy points while rarely leaving the floor in a must-win contest. In fact, his projection metrics are nearly identical to those of Anthony Davis despite costing 30% less to roster. It's time to get "KAT" in your lineups.

It's also a great spot to target his teammate Taurean Prince for shooting success, as he's knocked down multiple 3-pointers in all but five of 16 contests this season when playing at least 26 minutes this season. Prince's 3-point prop currently sits at 1.5 on DraftKings. Given the absence of both Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, Prince is positioned to play a big role for a depleted frontcourt.

A hallmark of the postseason is increased projectability for key contributors. As rotations shrink and minutes swell for the top six or seven members of each team, let our analysts below help inform your decisions.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Tuesday's Play In games

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 41-41 (36-44-2)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)

Line: Heat (-4.5) Total: 228
Money Line: Hawks (+170), Heat (-205)
BPI Projection: Heat by 1.7

Injury Report:
Hawks: None reported
Heat: Kyle Lowry, (GTD - Knee); Max Strus, (GTD - Finger); Nikola Jovic, (OUT - Back)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Butler was one of the most dominant players in the postseason last year. He averaged 25 points, 6.3 assists, and 8.0 rebounds in three games against the Hawks during the regular season and should meet or exceed those per game averages against Atlanta on Tuesday night against a Hawks team that ranks -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Over 226.5. The Hawks aren't a good defensive team and allow opponents an effective field goal percentage 55.5%, the ninth highest in the league. There were three games between the Heat and Hawks this season that met or exceeded 226 points. 233 points or more were scored in two of those games. Additionally, the Heat have ranked 22nd in defensive rating since the All-Star break so I expect tonight to be a high scoring game. -- Moody

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 42-40 (40-42-0)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)

Line: Lakers (-8) Total: 231.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+300), Lakers (-385)
BPI Projection: Lakers by 13.2

Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Nowell, (GTD - Knee); Karl-Anthony Towns, (GTD - Calf); Rudy Gobert, (OUT - Suspension); Jaden McDaniels, (OUT - Hand); Naz Reid, (OUT - Wrist)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); D'Angelo Russell, (GTD - Foot); LeBron James, (GTD - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Timberwolves +8.5. Maybe you're surprised that I'm backing a Minnesota team without Gobert, Reid, and McDaniels. While the Timberwolves might seem like a total disaster right now, they beat the Pelicans to get the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. The Lakers are 21-20 at home against the spread and 1-3 in their last four games while the Timberwolves are 5-3 against the spread over their last eight games. Minnesota has an 8-4 record when Gobert is out so I believe this game will be closer than people think. -- Moody

Best bet: Anthony Davis over 38.5 points + rebounds. Davis is in a great spot with Rudy Gobert suspended for punching Kyle Anderson in a team huddle on Sunday and Naz Reid out with a wrist injury. Karl-Anthony Towns has the tough job of defending Davis, and KAT struggled with foul trouble in last year's playoffs. This season, Davis has surpassed 38.5 PR against the Timberwolves on average and there is a strong chance this trend continues on Tuesday night. -- Moody