Week 4 is officially here! Daniel's Detroit Lions put on a clinic in Lambeau Field for "Thursday Night Football," their second primetime win on the road this season!
Unfortunately we don't talk TNF bets in this props column, but you can rest assured knowing we are here to get you setup to dominate Week 4's props.
After three weeks we've cashed 11 of our 18 props, that's a 61% hit rate! So let's keep this money train moving with a few picks from this week's slate.
Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 275.5 passing yards (at Buffalo)
Daniel: Let's have some fun with this one! The Bills haven't allowed to a QB to hit this mark yet this season... but pump the breaks on their defensive dominance. Of course, the Bills are a legit contender and one of the best teams in the league, but they've played Zach Wilson (140 passing yards), Jimmy Garoppolo (185 passing yards) and Sam Howell (170 passing yards). That's not a "who's who" of NFL quarterbacks, which throws some question marks into the mix. Tua is second in the NFL with 1,024 passing yards through three games. Looking at his game log, we've seen him hit this mark against bad defenses this year (Chargers: 466 passing yards and Broncos: 309 passing yards), but he fell short against the Patriots (249 passing yards on 30 attempts). I think this game will be much closer to the Pats game than the other two. The Bills are middle of the pack against the run and we expect them to try and use Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane to test that Bills run defense. It's totally in the cards for Tua to beat this mark of 275.5 passing yards, especially with Waddle coming back into the fold, but looking at the surrounding context, I'm playing it safe and taking the UNDER for this one.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 22.5 completions (vs. Atlanta)
Liz: Lawrence has yet to take the year-three leap that many (myself included) anticipated. But this take is less about Lawrence struggling and more about the Flacons defense surprising. Atlanta spent big money upgrading their defensive front over the offseason. Those investments have paid off... kind of. While the Falcons have allowed the fourth-lowest completion percentage (58.3%) and the fourth-fewest passing yards (510), this new-look unit has also only generated just 3 sacks on the season. That last part has had local ATL sports radio a buzz and I think - to borrow a quote for Michael Jordan - these Dirty Birds "took it personal." Lawrence has averaged 24.3 completions per game to date. My bet is on the Falcons shutting it down in London Town to UNDER that average and the above line.
Roschon Johnson OVER 31.5 rushing yards (vs. Denver)
Liz: No lies, I'm wish casting. But using data to inspire said wish. There's a lot of wrong with the Bears, on both sides of the ball. It's obvious, however that the lack of a run game is negatively affecting the overall health of the offense (to put it mildly). Johnson figures to remain in a stubborn time share with Kahlil Herbert, but he has been the more productive rusher, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per touch (RB13). The rookie has the juice to bust through a banged up Broncos run defense that was just steamrolled by Miami. If he gets just 7 or 8 carries (he recorded 8 last week), he could get OVER 31.5 rushing yards. I'm here for it!
Bijan Robinson OVER 25.5 receiving yards (at Jacksonville)
Daniel: I'm going to bring this bet back over and over until it stops cashing. Through three weeks, Tyler Allgeier has 5 receptions and Bijan Robinson has 14. Not only does Bijan get all that work in the passing game, he's averaging 34 receiving yards per game and he's hit this mark in all three games this season. One last thing, Bijan and Kyle Pitts lead this team with a 19.8% target share and Bijan leads this team in receptions. He's the pass catcher you want in this Falcons offense. Until this well runs dry, I'm gonna keep on drinking the Bijan Kool-Aid. For the third week in a row I'm taking the OVER on Bijan's receiving yards.
Daniel: Pittman is absolutely crushing it so far this year. He's averaged 11.3 targets (WR7) and 8.3 receptions (t-WR4) per game thus far. Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew have looked his way early and often, to the tune of a 30% target share. We'll have Richardson under center this week and I'm expecting him to find his favorite target a bunch this week against the Rams. With that kind of volume, 5.5 receptions feels way too low so I'm taking the OVER on Pittman. Who you got for our last prop, Liz?
Tee Higgins OVER 58.5 receiving yards (at Tennessee)
Liz: The Bengals' Week 3 win over the Rams was ugly for Joe Burrow. But it was even uglier for Tee Higgins, who converted just 2 of 8 looks for 21 yards. My man dropped all the things! Burrow was clearly out of rhythm, but we know how good this duo can be, even when Joe Cool isn't at 100 percent (ex: Week 2). Higgins excels in contested situations (WR18 in contested catch rate last year) and has averaged around 14 yards per reception over his three-year career. I like his odds of bouncing back in Nashville this weekend. The Titans have allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing WRs (and the third-most most fantasy points to outside receivers). Let's manifest a hearty bounce-back and the OVER on 58.5 receiving yards.
Daniel: YES! I love this confidence in Higgins and I'm totally with you thinking he'll have a bounce back performance against the Titans secondary. It feels kinda risky because of Burrow's limited mobility, but Higgins has 27 targets so far this year. That's 9 per game! Sign me up for this over as well.