LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots blew out the Denver Broncos 43-21 and took the lead in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the Broncos remained atop the NFL Vegas Rankings.
The handicappers' panel -- which includes Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, and combines our personal power ratings -- dropped the Broncos' power rating and raised the Patriots' number, but Peyton Manning & Co. stayed 2.5 points ahead. That might not seem right with New England's dominance on Sunday -- though it was at home in less-than-ideal conditions that favored Tom Brady and the Patriots -- but it seems in line with the fact that Denver is still the 7-2 favorite to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, with New England at 5-1.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
The NFL Vegas Rankings are used to compare two teams to the current point spread as if they were meeting on a neutral field then factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England and San Francisco are typically given a full field goal, while Denver and New Orleans are closer to 3.5. Seattle is given the biggest home-field advantage in the league (about four to 4.5 points).
Below is a look at the power ratings for all 32 NFL teams, along with Week 10 games where there appears to be value in the current lines. As always, these are not my personal plays (though I did go with both Arizona and New England last week, and both underdogs won outright) or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the collective group as a whole. I'll post my thoughts in the Tuley's Take column on Friday.
NFL Vegas Rankings
1. Denver Broncos (Power rating: 27.5)
Denver drops a full point after its 43-21 loss as a 3-point favorite at New England. The Broncos have had a great season so far, but they're only 4-4 ATS.
Previous rating: 28.5
2. New England Patriots (25)
New England's rout of Denver closes the gap as the Pats' power rating raises a point, but they remain behind the Broncos as home field clearly helped.
Previous rating: 24
3. Green Bay Packers (24.5)
Green Bay was idle in Week 9, so its power rating stays the same. The Packers had covered four in a row before losing at New Orleans.
Previous rating: 24.5
4 (tie). Arizona Cardinals (24)
Arizona keeps moving up the rankings as its 28-17 win at Dallas as a 1-point underdog moves the Cards up a full point. They're 6-2 ATS with four covers in a row.
Previous rating: 23
4 (tie). Indianapolis Colts (24)
Indianapolis bounced back from its loss at Pittsburgh to beat the New York Giants 40-24 as a 3-point road underdog on Monday night. The Colts are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS.
Previous rating: 23
4 (tie). Seattle Seahawks (24)
Seattle held on to beat Oakland 30-24, but failing to cover as a 13.5-point home favorite drops the Seahawks half a point. They've now failed to cover four straight games and are 3-5 ATS overall.
Previous rating: 24.5
7. New Orleans Saints (23)
New Orleans jumped up a full point after its first road win/cover of the season in a 28-10 rout at Carolina on Thursday. The Saints are now 4-4 SU and ATS after their third straight ATS win.
Previous rating: 22
8. Dallas Cowboys (22)
Dallas lost to Arizona, but it was without Tony Romo. Our panel kept the Cowboys' power rating the same (though it gets reduced about 3 points if Brandon Weeden starts instead).
Previous rating: 22
9 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (21.5)
Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the league with three straight wins and covers, and gets bumped up a full point after its 43-23 rout of Baltimore on Sunday night.
Previous rating: 20.5
9 (tie). Cincinnati Bengals (21.5)
Cincinnati beat Jacksonville 33-23, pushing against the consensus closing line, so the Bengals' power rating stays unchanged.
Previous rating: 21.5
9 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (21.5)
Baltimore's 43-23 loss at Pittsburgh as a 2-point road underdog drops the Ravens a full point after not being lowered last week.
Previous rating: 22.5
9 (tie). Philadelphia Eagles (21.5)
Philadelphia increases half a point after its 31-21 win at Houston as a 2-point road fave. The loss of Nick Foles keeps the Eagles from being raised more.
Previous rating: 21
9 (tie). Kansas City Chiefs (21.5)
Kansas City covered in a 24-10 win over the New York Jets as an 8.5-point home fave and moves up half a point. The Chiefs are an NFL-best 6-1-1 ATS, but they'd still be a 'dog to most of the teams above them.
Previous rating: 21
9 (tie). Miami Dolphins (21.5)
Miami makes the biggest upward move of 2 points after its 37-0 rout of San Diego as a 2.5-point home favorite. The Dolphins are on a three-game cover streak.
Previous rating: 19.5
15 (tie). San Francisco 49ers (21)
San Francisco takes the biggest tumble of the week after losing outright 13-10 to St. Louis as a 10.5-point home favorite. The 49ers are now 4-4 SU and 3-4-1 ATS after losing two straight.
Previous rating: 23
15 (tie). Detroit Lions (21)
Detroit's power rating is unchanged after its bye week, but the Lions are coming off two straight ATS losses (both were 1-point straight-up wins as 1.5- and 3.5-point favorites, respectively).
Previous rating: 21
15 (tie). San Diego Chargers (21)
San Diego looked lost in its 37-0 loss at Miami and drops 1.5 points after dipping a point last week. The Chargers have now failed to cover four straight after starting 5-0 ATS.
Previous rating: 22.5
18 (tie). Houston Texans (19.5)
Houston lost 31-21 to Philly as a 2-point home underdog but the panel keeps its power rating the same.
Previous rating: 19.5
18 (tie). Buffalo Bills (19.5)
Buffalo's power rating also stays the same off its bye week. The Bills improved to 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS before the bye with a 43-23 rout of the Jets.
Previous rating: 19.5
20. Chicago Bears (19)
Chicago is also coming off a bye, though our panel almost dropped it another half a point a week after the Bears' 51-23 loss at New England, as the loss was worse than the score indicated.
Previous rating: 19
21 (tie). Carolina Panthers (18.5)
Carolina failed to build on its cover against Seattle on Oct. 26, losing 28-10 to New Orleans as a 3-point home underdog on Thursday. The Panthers dropped a full point.
Previous rating: 19.5
21 (tie). Washington Redskins (18.5)
Washington lost 29-26 at Minnesota in a game that closed pick 'em with Robert Griffin III's return. The coin-flip loss kept the Redskins' power rating unchanged.
Previous rating: 18.5
23 (tie). Atlanta Falcons (18)
Atlanta is another team coming off a bye and still trying to recover from blowing a 21-0 lead over Detroit in London and losing 22-21, though it covered as a 3.5-point underdog.
Previous rating: 18
23. (tie). Cleveland Browns (18)
Cleveland is 5-3 SU and half a game out of first in the AFC North, but its non-covering 22-17 win over Tampa Bay as a 7-point home fave keeps the Browns' power rating the same.
Previous rating: 18
25. New York Giants (17.5)
New York continued its streaky ways, dropping its third straight game SU and ATS in a 40-24 loss to Indy on Monday night. The Giants' power rating was dropped another half a point.
Previous rating: 18
26 (tie). Minnesota Vikings (17)
Minnesota outlasted Washington 29-26 in a game that closed pick 'em, so the panel kept its power rating the same. The Vikes have covered three straight, but all right around the spread.
Previous rating: 17
26 (tie). St. Louis Rams (17)
You might think St. Louis would be upgraded more with its 13-10 upset of San Francisco as a 10.5-point road underdog, but its inconsistent play only warranted a 1-point increase.
Previous rating: 16
28. New York Jets (15)
New York failed to cover in its 24-10 loss at Kansas City as an 8.5-point road underdog, but the Jets were close to getting in the back door, so the panel kept their power rating the same.
Previous rating: 15
29 (tie). Tennessee Titans (14.5)
Tennessee is coming off a bye and its power rating stays the same as the Titans head into the second half of their schedule at 2-6 SU and ATS. One panelist has them rated last in the NFL.
Previous rating: 14.5
29 (tie). Oakland Raiders (14.5)
Oakland's rating improved half a point after its 30-24 loss at Seattle as Derek Carr threw a TD pass in the final minute to get the Raiders in the back door and cover as a 13-point road underdog.
Previous rating: 14
29 (tie). Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14.5)
Tampa Bay lost 22-17 at Cleveland but covered as a 7-point road underdog to also warrant its power rating being increased by half a point.
Previous rating: 14
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (13.5)
Jacksonville lost 33-23 at Cincinnati, pushing against the 10-point closing line. If the Jaguars had covered they might have moved up a bit, but their power rating stays the lowest in the league.
Previous rating: 13.5
Week 10 value plays
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Vegas consensus line: Arizona -7
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -7 (24-17)
Arizona has been a consistent value play of the NFL Vegas Rankings as we've had the Cards rated higher than the oddsmakers and other handicappers for a while. This week, they're rated 7 points better than the Rams, which is the same as the early-week spread, but that's before we apply Arizona's home-field advantage and that makes it a play.
The play: Arizona -7 or lower.
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
Vegas consensus line: Detroit -3
Vegas Ranks: Miami -0.5 (21.5-21)
Our panel has the Dolphins rated as half a point better than the Lions, so even with Detroit getting 2.5 or 3 points for home-field advantage, it doesn't make them favored by a full field goal. It's a close call, so we would call it a no-play with the point spread at 2.5.
The play: Miami +3.