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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

Carlos Carrasco of the New York Mets has a 3.79 ERA this season. AP Photo/Morry Gash

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

By Derek Carty

  • Tuesday's top streamer at starting pitcher is Carlos Carrasco (76% rostered). He's in a terrific matchup at home in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the Marlins. He's not available everywhere, but he's out there in enough leagues where it's worth checking. The same goes for Lance McCullers (81%). If you need someone a bit more available, Patrick Sandoval (61%) is facing the Oakland A's and would be a terrific alternative.

  • In terms of sub-50% owned pitchers, Hunter Greene (35%) at Pittsburgh is great, and if all else fails, Kyle Muller (1%) against the Nationals is almost surely available and is a great play too. Today sets up really well to stream multiple pitchers if you're in need of starts down the stretch.

  • Tyler Anderson (94%) has been one of 2022's biggest surprise breakouts. If you were lucky enough to pick him up this year, though, you may want to consider benching him today. He's unusable in most mixed leagues today against an elite Padres offense, projecting for a mid-4.00s ERA with just a bit over 4 strikeouts. You could drop him to free up a roster spot for something else, although his final matchup next week against Colorado is a good one.

  • THE BAT X projects three teams to score five or more runs on Tuesday. Most of the notable Braves and Astros are going to be rostered in your leagues, but there are likely to be some Los Angeles Angels available. Taylor Ward (78%) may be a long-shot but worth checking on. Luis Rengifo (25%) has been hitting leadoff lately. Max Stassi (1%), Mike Ford (1%), Matt Duffy (1%), and anyone else who happens to be in the lineup today are very likely to be available.

  • If you're looking for a few extra steals to push you over the top, you may want to consider Rangers against Robbie Ray today. Ray is a good pitcher, but he's very easy to steal on. Bubba Thompson (5%) has the fourth-best chance of anybody to steal a base today, according to THE BAT X (behind universally-owned Trea Turner and Tommy Edman and Jon Berti, who happens to only be 22% himself. Go get him if available). Leody Taveras (5%) is another strong option.


Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday


THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today


Prop of the Day

Juan Soto Home Runs: Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-1200)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Soto putting up 0.22 home runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 20.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $40.84.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • Juan Soto projects as the second-best hitter in the majors, via THE BAT X.

  • Petco Park has the second-shallowest centerfield fences in the league.

  • Petco Park has the second-lowest fences in the league.

  • The weatherman calls for the second-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

  • Tyler Anderson will have the handedness advantage over Juan Soto today.

  • Soto's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 92.9-mph mark last season has fallen to 90.8-mph.