Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games
By Derek Carty
Tuesday's top pitching streamer is Taijuan Walker (7% rostered in ESPN leagues). He faces one of the weakest offenses in the majors, the Detroit Tigers, and projects for one of the highest win probabilities of the day (42%), according to THE BAT X.
This could also be a day to go heavy on pitcher streaming, since James Paxton (12% rostered) and Clarke Schmidt (4%) are also widely available and project very well. Paxton gets a big park upgrade facing a mediocre Guardians offense, and Schmidt faces a below-average White Sox offense that takes a big park downgrade of their own.
If you roster Hunter Brown (70%), Lucas Giolito (87%) or Tony Gonsolin (74%), you should strongly consider keeping them on your bench today. Brown and Giolito face tough offenses (the Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively), while Gonsolin goes into 80-degree Great American Ball Park with double-digit winds blowing out. Giolito and Gonsolin both project for an ERA over 5.00 in these matchups, according to THE BAT X.
While the Dodgers and Braves project for the most runs today, the Giants are likely your better streaming target for hitters. More of their lineup ought to be on your waiver wire, and a matchup in Coors Field is on tap. LaMonte Wade Jr. (13%), Wilmer Flores (14%), Mike Yastrzemski (9%), Mitch Haniger (12%), J.D. Davis (9%), Brandon Crawford (2%) and Blake Sabol (1%) are all terrific choices. As an added bonus, opposing pitcher Dinelson Lamet is one of the easiest pitchers to steal on today.
If you're looking for home runs specifically, you should also take a look at the Angels, who face extreme flyball pitcher Hayden Wesneski at home in a top-10 park for homers. In particular, Brandon Drury (30%), Taylor Ward (60%) and Jared Walsh (3%) are worth streaming.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday
By Todd Zola
With just under half of the league off yesterday, the bullpen report is light, with both closers we flag as possibly unavailable tonight being likely to get the call if needed.
Alexis Diaz struck out the side Monday night, nailing down the win for Andrew Abbott in his MLB debut, as the Reds blanked the Brewers 2-0. Diaz tossed 12 pitches, but he has pitched on back-to-back days five times already this season, four of which followed a first game in which he threw more than a dozen pitches.
After the Cardinals rallied in the top of the eighth to draw even with the Rangers at three apiece, Ryan Helsley was asked for a shutdown inning in the bottom of the frame. He did his job, fanning a pair while using 13 pitches. His effort went for naught after Texas walked it off in the ninth. Helsley had last pitched on May 28 when he was charged with his fourth blown save of the season, after blowing just four overall last season. Last night's clean frame could signal a return to the ninth inning, perhaps as soon as this evening, as Helsley has worked on consecutive days four times this season, three coming after games throwing more than 13 pitches.
My research demonstrates saves opportunities correlate best with team winning percentage and staff ERA. The ERA correlation is higher than runs scored and run differential. The Astros, Braves and Rays team ERA are unsurprisingly in the top five of the league. The Twins and Rangers are the other two. However, neither bullpen is even in the top 10 in terms of save chances. The study involves using season-ending numbers, which means if Minnesota and Texas continue to sport a low team ERA, their save chances should increase. The prescient fantasy manager can take advantage by rostering Twins closer Jhoan Duran (44%) and Ranger closer Will Smith (21.4%), as both should increase their rate of saves over the coming weeks and months.
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Jack Suwinski (PIT, LF -- 7%) vs. Kaprielian
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF -- 10%) vs. Gonsolin
Tucupita Marcano (PIT, LF -- 1%) vs. Kaprielian
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 65%) at Gausman
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 76%) at Peralta
Tim Anderson (CHW, SS -- 51%) at Schmidt
Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C -- 62%) vs. Brown
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, RF -- 78%) at Schmidt
The Bat X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
Prop of the Day
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros: Earned runs prop is set at 2.5 (-160/+120).
THE BAT sees Brown putting up 2.52 earned runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $28.01.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
The Toronto Blue Jays projected offense ranks as the fourth-best on the slate today.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
THE BAT forecasts Brown in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent.
Gabe Morales profiles as a pitcher's umpire and is expected to be behind the plate today.
The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 16.1 mph in this matchup, the second-most favorable of the day for pitchers.
Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.4% GB% per THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre, the No. 10 HR venue in the league, today.