Key games decide bubble, top seed

Villanova has a No. 1 seed ... for now. Can the Cats hold on? Evan Habeeb/USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to the expanded edition of Joe Lunardi's Rundown. This series features tournament odds, an element that will take you deeper into Bracketology. Bracketology provides a snapshot of how the bracket looks on a specific day, but through the use of Lunardi's extensive database of previous seasons, tournament odds tell you how the bracket is likely to look come Selection Sunday.

Top-line report

Barring anything truly unusual, three of the four No. 1 seeds are set. So let's take a look at the individual team scenarios to see how the top line projects on Selection Sunday:

Wichita State Shockers: The Shockers will be a No. 1 seed, most likely in the Midwest, and begin a new quest to turn their 34-0 record into a historic 40-0 season. Losses elsewhere, particularly by Florida, could elevate Wichita State to No. 1 overall.

Florida Gators: The Gators are also a lock No. 1 seed and most likely No. 1 overall should they reach the SEC championship game unscathed. Even a loss in that Selection Sunday contest would not drop Florida from the top line.

Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats stumbled in their regular-season finale but should remain a No. 1 seed with a win in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. Arizona will face the winner of Utah-Washington on Thursday, and only a loss to the Huskies would be damaging.

Now, on to the fourth No. 1, where things get a little less clear ...